Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Player Props & Picks (10/1/23)

The Miami Dolphins travel to face the Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon (10/1/23). Get Dolphins vs. Bills player props odds, predictions, and best bets, including Tyreek Hill, James Cook, and Josh Allen.

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Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Picks

Which players will shred their respective player props in the Dolphins vs. Bills matchup? Can Tyreek Hill continue to find the end zone?

Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (-130 DK)

Tyreek Hill currently leads the NFL at four receptions touchdowns and ranks second in PFF’s expected reception touchdowns. Hill also sits second in red zone targets and first in inside the ten-yard-line targets, so he hasn’t just been a deep touchdown scorer.

Mike McDaniel is pioneering football with his creative pre-snap motion, and it’s allowed Hill far more room to run, which emphasizes his speed. The Dolphins are breaking all sorts of offensive records, and Hill’s connection with Tua Tagovailoa is a driving force. It’s far from an easy matchup because this excellent Bills defense ranks second in opponent dropback Expected Points Added per Play; however, Hill is borderline unstoppable at the moment. He’s currently on pace for 2,334 yards and 22 touchdowns.

Hill needs to score a touchdown about 56 percent of the time for a positive expected value.

James Cook Over 78.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-112 BetRivers)

To start the season, Cook has been efficiency itself. He’s averaging 111.3 scrimmage yards per game on 6.1 yards per carry and 3.3 receptions per game. With teams prioritizing Josh Allen’s arm, it’s allowed Cook more breathing room to operate, especially in the flat. Buffalo owns one of the better offensive lines in the league too, which greatly increases the probability of racking up yards.

Cook faces a Dolphins team that has struggled against running backs. Miami’s defense ranks 30th in opponent rush Expected Points Added per Play, 25th in opponent running back scrimmage yards (144 yards per game), and 19th in PFF’s run defense grade. James Cook has been dynamic with the football so far, and the opportunity for a big game is here.

Cook must total 79 yards about 52 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.

Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions (-125 Bet365)

Although Josh Allen resides in the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks, turnovers have constantly plagued him. He had the second most interceptions last year (14), and he currently has the third most this season (4). Per PFF, Allen owns the third most Turnover Worthy Plays and the third highest Turnover Worthy Play rate. Miami is expected to score plenty of points here, so Allen will need to throw a ton throughout the game, thus greatly increasing his interception chances.

Miami’s secondary has been average in terms of turnovers, but the tools are there. Cornerback Xavien Howard owns 29 career interceptions, and he could turn back the clock against Buffalo.

Allen must throw an interception about 55 percent of the time.

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