Get Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers player prop picks & odds for the (9/10/23) matchup
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Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Picks
The Miami Dolphins open against the Los Angeles Chargers in one of the most highly anticipated Week One matchups. It’s a battle between quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa (5th pick of 2020 Draft) and Justin Herbert (6th pick of 2020 Draft).
Tua Tagovailoa Over 254.5 Passing Yards (+100 Caesars)
Of the 60 wide receivers with at least 70 targets last season, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill ranked eighth and ninth, respectively, in yards after the catch (per PFF). They are the fastest elite duo in the NFL with breakaway ability on any catch. These qualities make Tagovailoa’s life far easier, since they can turn a simple screen into a fifty yard gain. As a result, it’s not essential for Tagovailoa to be hyper-accurate downfield for him to hit this prop. Given that a shootout is expected, he should have desirable passing volume too.
Across twelve healthy games last season, Tagovailoa reached this mark nine times for a hit rate of 75 percent. For this bet to hold a positive expected value, Tagovailoa must pass for 255 yards just over 50 percent of the time.
Joey Bosa Over 0.75 sacks (+114 DK) & Khalil Mack Over 0.75 sacks (+175 DK)
Bosa only played five games last season due to injury, but he was productive when on the field. PFF graded him as the twelfth best pass rusher, and Bosa notched a 20.2 pass rush win percentage – third best in the NFL. The 28-year-old former Buckeye cleared ten sacks in four of his six seasons before last year.
Meanwhile, Khalil Mack earned a Pro Bowl berth in his age 32 season. The former Defensive Player of the Year had eight sacks and a 10.8 pass rush win percentage (per PFF). Those numbers are certainly not elite, and Mack has lost a step from his prime; however, he’s still a productive pass rusher that can place pressure on the quarterback. Mack and Bosa are in line to add to their career sacks totals on Sunday too.
Miami’s star tackle Terron Armstead is out due to injury. There were 81 tackles with 300 pass blocking snaps last year; Armstead ranked eighth in PFF’s Pass Blocking Efficiency metric, which “measures pressure allowed on a per-snap basis with weighting toward sacks allowed.” The Dolphins already had a weak offensive line, but Armstead’s injury means the Chargers will harass Tua Tagovailoa all game to an even higher degree. Look for Bosa and Mack to take advantage and bring down Tagovailoa for at least a sack.
For this bet to hold a positive expected value, Bosa must record a sack here around 46 percent of the time, while Mack must accomplish this around 36 percent of the time.
Gerald Everett Anytime Touchdown (+235 Caesars)
Everett only grabbed four touchdowns last season, but his volume was encouraging. The veteran tight end averaged one red zone target and one inside the ten-yard-line target per game. That doesn’t seem like much, but it’s actually a solid amount of volume. The former basketball and track-and-field star will be a big target for Justin Herbert in the red zone, especially with Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams drawing the defensive attention.
Everett also faces a Dolphins defense that allowed the fourth most receptions and fourth most touchdowns to tight ends. Given that this game is projected to be a shootout, Everett should get at least one opportunity to score a touchdown – that’s all we can ask for.
For this bet to hold a positive expected value, Everett must score a touchdown around 29 percent of the time.