Get Eagles vs. Buccaneers player prop picks & odds for the (9/25/23) Monday Night Football matchup.
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Eagles vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Picks
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Philadelphia Eagles in the first game of a Monday Night Football doubleheader on 9/25/23. With two of the best wide receiver tandems in the NFL, this game promises plenty of opportunities to bet on NFL player props. Let’s take a look at some of the betting odds on player prop bets and pick the best Eagles vs. Buccaneers player prop bets for this week 3 matchup.
A.J. Brown over 68.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
The Eagles have developed a reputation for greasing the squeaky wheel. In other words, when a player is unhappy with his role in the offense one week, they make a point of getting him involved in the following game.
Following that logic, we picked the over on Dallas Goedert’s receptions last week after he had 0 catches on just 1 target in week 1, and that bet cashed at +125. This week it’s AJ Brown’s turn after he had just 4 catches for 29 yards last week and appeared visibly frustrated on the sidelines.
— Tanner Phifer (@TannerPhiferNFL) September 15, 2023
That incident seems to have been overblown in the media, as Brown, Jalen Hurts and coach Nick Sirianni all downplayed it as a non-issue in recent days, and we tend to believe them. Still, it would be surprising if the Eagles did not make a significant effort to target Brown in this game.
Brown had at least 69 receiving yards in 12 of his 20 games last season (including the playoffs) and cleared that number in week 1 this year as well. He finished the 2022 regular season with 6 consecutive games of at least 69 receiving yards and 7 of his last 9 including the playoffs (his 2 quiet playoff games were blowouts in which the Eagles took their foot off the gas very early).
The Eagles’ passing game has looked a bit out of sync through the first two games under new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and we expect they will put an emphasis on rectifying that in this game with the extra preparation time afforded them by playing on Thursday night last week. Another reason for that is that the passing game is the best way to attack the Buccaneers’ defense.
Tampa Bay has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards and the sixth-fewest yards per carry so far this season. On the other hand, they are just 24th against the pass, and it’s possible they will be missing their top cornerback Carlton Davis III in this game. Davis returned to practice this week but remains questionable as of this writing.
Between Brown’s recent performance and the Eagles’ expected game plan, he stands a very good chance of cashing the over on his receiving yards prop at 68.5 yards. As a bonus pick, we also like his +135 odds for an anytime touchdown.
Chris Godwin over 5.5 receptions (+125 at BetMGM)
Speaking of strong run defenses and weak passing defenses, the same is true of the Eagles. They currently lead the league in rushing yards allowed and are 7th in yards per carry allowed, but they are just 31st against the pass.
The Bucs were the worst rushing offense in the league last year and so far this year they have been one of the least efficient rushing offenses with just 2.9 yards per carry. That combination should lead to a very pass-heavy offensive game plan in this matchup.
Another reason for that is that the Eagles just lost one of the best nickel cornerbacks in the league in Avonte Maddox, who tore is pectoral muscle last week and is expected to miss (at least most of) the rest of the season.
Which Bucs wide receiver lines up the most in slot? Yes, it’s Chris Godwin, who saw 72.9% of his snaps from the slot last season and a team-high 45.3% so far this season.
Godwin had at least 6 catches in 13 of his 16 games last season. The obvious difference this season is that Tom Brady is no longer his quarterback, but Baker Mayfield has played very well while leading the Bucs to a 2-0 record. Godwin has 5 catches in each of his first 2 games with Mayfield, and we expect that number to increase in this matchup.
Mayfield will need to get the ball out quickly in this game because the Eagles have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. That means he will be even more likely to target Godwin on quick passes over the middle.
At +125 odds, the over on Godwin’s receptions is a great value in this game.
Cade Otton anytime touchdown (+400 at FanDuel)
So long as we’re betting on a high-octane passing offense on both sides of this matchup, let’s get our favorite pass catcher anytime touchdown on the ticket. There are certainly other players more likely to get in the end zone in this game, but we like the value on a Cade Otton touchdown at +400 compared to those other options.
Historically the Eagles have been weak at covering tight ends because of their organizational philosophy that deprioritizes the linebacker and safety positions. This year is no different, as they have allowed the most receptions (17) and touchdowns (3) and the second-most yards (171) to opposing tight ends through the first two weeks. Those three scores, including two by TJ Hockenson last week, are as many as the Eagles allowed to tight ends all of last season.
Otton got much more involved in the Bucs’ offense last week compared to week 1, catching all 6 of his targets for 41 yards. When the Bucs get into the red zone, a big body like Otton makes for a great target for Baker Mayfield, especially considering the talent the Eagles have at cornerback to match up with Godwin and Mike Evans. We expect Otton to get at least 1 or 2 red zone targets this week, and if that pans out then this bet will be looking like an even better value.
Make sure to head over to FanDuel to get the best odds on this pick. As of this writing, other major sportsbooks had these odds at no better than +300.