Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots NFL Player Props & Picks (9/10/23)
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Get Eagles vs. Patriots player prop picks & odds for the (9/10/23) matchup.
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Eagles vs. Patriots Player Prop Picks
The Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots kick off their 2023 seasons with a 4:25pm ET game in Foxborough, MA. This game has the potential to be a defensive struggle with two of the better defenses in the league last season, but the Eagles also have plenty of offensive firepower to break things open.
Let’s take a look at some of the odds on player props and pick the best Eagles vs. Patriots player prop bets for this week 1 clash.
Jalen Hurts any time touchdown (+120 at FanDuel)
Let’s start with one of our favorite player prop bets from last season that cashed more than half the time, including in the Super Bowl.
Behind a dominant offensive line that returns 4 out of 5 starters, Jalen Hurts was unstoppable in the red zone last year. His 13 rushing touchdowns were just one shy of Cam Newton’s record for rushing TDs by a quarterback in a season. He scored a rushing touchdown in all three playoff games too, including three (!!) in Super Bowl LVII.
Including the playoffs, Hurts crossed the goal line in 12 of his 18 games last season. He scored multiple rushing touchdowns four times.
The Patriots have a very strong run defense, but even the strongest defenses had trouble containing Hurts on the ground last season. Until we see his production on the ground slow down, we’re going to keep betting on him to score an anytime touchdown.
DeVonta Smith over 5.5 receptions (+120 at FanDuel)
Another player prop bet that cashed consistently last season was the over on DeVonta Smith’s receptions. Smith hit the over on his receptions prop line in 15 of his 20 games including 2 out of 3 in the playoffs (the exception being the weird NFC Championship Game against the 49ers in which the Eagles took their foot off the gas early).
Smith led the Eagles in receptions last season and set a new franchise record with 95 catches by a wide receiver. He had at least 6 receptions in 10 of his 20 games including 5 of his last 6 (again, the 49ers game being the exception).
The only player the Eagles added this offseason who might eat into Smith’s target share is D’Andre Swift, who is expected to be used heavily as a receiver out of the backfield. The Eagles rarely threw the ball to running backs last season, but they also didn’t have a talent like Swift.
The Patriots had one of the best passing defenses in the league last season – third in EPA per dropback allowed – and added talented cornerback Christian Gonzalez in the 1st round of the draft. Because of his size, Gonzalez is likely to spend most of the game matching up with the bigger A.J. Brown, leaving Smith matched up with smaller cornerbacks like Jonathan Jones (5’10”) or Marcus Jones (5’8”).
Smith is going to have an advantage over anyone who is covering him in this game and should have no problem cashing the over on 5.5 receptions.
Rhamondre Stevenson over 55.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Bill Belichick is known for ruthlessly exploiting an opponent’s biggest weakness, and for the Eagles that was definitively their run defense in 2022. They finished the season 23rd in EPA per rush allowed, and that was a big improvement from the first 8 weeks of the season when they were 29th.
The Eagles improved over the second half of the season thanks largely to the mid-season acquisition of defensive tackles Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh, both of whom are no longer on the team. They also lost both starting linebackers and both starting safeties. While the replacements for those players are promising young guys like Jordan Davis, Nakobe Dean, and Reed Blankenship, they are mostly unproven and likely will not be as good, especially early in the season.
As a result, expect Belichick to give both Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott a healthy workload in this game. Stevenson is the more talented runner at this point in their respective careers and should get the majority of the carries, while Elliott gets opportunities on early downs and short yardage situations.
Stevenson was outstanding in his breakout season last year, rushing for over 1,000 yards on a 5 yards per carry average. He rushed for at least 56 yards 7 times and had two other games with 54 yards.
The risk with this pick is the game script if the Eagles jump out to a big lead and force the Patriots to abandon the run. The Patriots also have a banged up offensive line with three starters on the injury report. But we saw last season that the recipe for beating the Eagles is to run the ball effectively, win the time of possession battle and keep the ball away from Hurts and the Eagles offense. The Patriots can do that with Stevenson, and their defense is good enough to keep the game close for long enough that Stevenson will still get his opportunities.
If Stevenson gets double-digit carries, which we expect he will, then he should have no problem rushing for over 55.5 yards.
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