New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Player Props & Picks (9/21/23)

The ailing New York Giants meet the dominant San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football. Check out below for Giants vs. 49ers player prop odds, predictions, and best bets, including Daniel Jones, Darren Waller, Nick Bosa, and Javon Hargrave.

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New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Picks

Which players will provide their respective team a massive boost in the Giants vs. 49ers game?

Daniel Jones Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-230 DK)

Across the last three seasons, Jones threw for 36 touchdowns in 41 games, which is 0.878 touchdowns per game. So far this season, he has two passing touchdowns and three interceptions in two games. To say that Daniel Jones struggles to lead a ferocious aerial attack is a massive understatement. His safety blanket Saquon Barkley is out, so Jones won’t have his partner that can churn out extra yards and thrive in the flat. Excluding tight end Darren Waller and perhaps Jalin Hyatt, the Giants are completely devoid of weapons that could separate against an average defense, much less this elite 49ers one.

There’s a reason this line is so juiced – it’s highly unlikely Jones manages two touchdown passes against San Francisco. The implied odds are 69.7 percent, and that number is too low. Therefore, it’s a great spot to take despite the ugly odds.

Nick Bosa Over 0.25 Sacks (-160 DK) & Javon Hargrave Over 0.75 Sacks (+130 DK)

It didn’t hit last week, but I am running it back. Of the 71 defensive linemen with at least 50 pass rush snaps, Bosa (2nd) and Hargrave (5th) both rank in the top five of pass rush win percentage per PFF. That’s nothing new, as this duo dominated last season as well.

They meet a Giants offensive line that currently ranks 26th per PFF, and Daniel Jones has subsequently faced the second most dropbacks under pressure. The right side in particular has struggled mightily; Evan Neal and Mark Glowinski have allowed a combined four sacks and twenty pressures already. Look for San Francisco to control the line of scrimmage and rack up sacks against Daniel Jones

Darren Waller Over 4.5 Receptions (+130 DK)

Waller is clearly the top option for Jones; he leads the Giants with 13 targets and 9 catches. The 6’6” tight end has the size to win in isolation and the hands to make contested catches, so Jones can count on him regardless of tight coverage. Even if Barkley was playing, it would be a solid spot to back Waller. However, Barkley’s 11 targets and 9 receptions must go somewhere, and Waller is the likely beneficiary of a hefty chunk. Given his massive target share and reduced competition, it should be the Waller show here against San Francisco’s defense.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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