Japan 2026 World Cup Team Preview, Betting Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

By Phil West | May 15, 2026, 2:22pm

One of the most consistent powers in Asian soccer, Japan’s qualified for its eighth straight World Cup, missing out on the U.S.-hosted edition in 1994 but making every World Cup since.

It could be rough sledding for the Samurai Blue this time around. They’re one of the more snakebit teams as far as injury goes, and they’re facing a particularly tough group — maybe not a Group of Death, but certainly a Group of Great Discomfort. Recent friendly wins, including a 1-0 victory over England, set a hopeful tone, but getting to the knockout phase could conceivably happen for them as a third-place team.

Japan 2026 World Cup Betting Odds

To Win World Cup:
To Reach Final:
To Reach Semifinal:
To Reach Quarterfinal:
To Win Group F:
To Advance From Group:
Group: Group F
FIFA Rank: 18

Despite a strong showing in 2022, taking Croatia to penalties in the Round of 16, Japan has injuries to contend with ahead of the 2026 tournament.

Takumi Minamino (Monaco) is a definite out with an ACL injury, and the May 15 roster drop confirmed that Koki Machida (Hoffenheim), who sustained an ACL injury last year, is also out, leaving Japan a little thinner at center back. Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton), dealing with a hamstring injury, also wasn’t included. This could all shift plans for playing in the team’s preferred and innovative 3-4-2-1 formation.

Wataru Endō (Liverpool) did end up making the squad, a positive given he was a question mark with a foot ligament injury suffered in February. In April, he described the ligament in an interview as “completely gone.”

And the group stage assignment? After starting with the Netherlands in North Texas, Japan moves to Monterrey to face Tunisia, then returns to Jerryworld for a match with Sweden. Current FIFA world rankings say they should finish second in the group, but Swedish striker Viktor Gyökeres might have other ideas.

Japan 2026 World Cup Best Bet

Looking at who they’re facing in group play, Japan should fare better than Tunisia, and would therefore either be one of the stronger third-place teams in the field or do no worse than second pending a result against Sweden. This, of course, presumes that Japan will fall to the Netherlands in its opening match and be in a hole to start group play, though that’s not a foregone conclusion.

Historically, though, even strong Japan teams have only lasted a round beyond the group stages. With the new expanded field, that’s the Round of 32 rather than the Round of 16 — which might be a more conceivable landing spot with a fully fit roster.

Best Bet: Stage of Elimination, Round of 32 (+125)

Japan 2026 World Cup Players to Watch

Ayase Ueda: The Feyenoord forward is the most likely striker to put up goal numbers during the tournament. This season, he’s put up nearly a goal a match in the Eredivisie, and that’s impressive even though a number of the players he’ll face in the opener have graduated from the Eredivisie (or its youth systems) to bigger leagues.

Daizen Maeda: If it’s not Ueda scoring, look for it to be Maeda, who has put up two straight double-digit goal seasons at Celtic — albeit a Celtic that’s had a tumultuous season with three midseason manager changes. His bicycle kick goal in the most recent rivalry match against Rangers gives a good indication of what he’s capable of doing on the pitch.

Takefusa Kubo: With Mitoma out, the Real Sociedad winger will be counted on even more for chance creation. Dubbed the “Japanese Messi,” Kubo’s numbers haven’t been particularly sterling but he should positively influence how Japan plays, and that could show up more in the stats for this World Cup given who’s out.

Japan World Cup History

After some very early false starts — withdrawing from both the 1930 and 1938 editions of the tournament — Japan entered the World Cup in 1998, and has been to every quadrennial since. It’s gotten to the Round of 16 four times, including the 2002 edition it co-hosted with South Korea, losing 1-0 to Turkey, which rode that momentum to winning the third-place game after falling in the semis to eventual champs Brazil.

Photo Credit: AP/Kirsty Wigglesworth

Phil West

Phil West is a writer based in Austin, Texas, whose work has appeared in a wide range of outlets, including MLSSoccer.com, Backheeled, and Howler, as well as major publications such as the Los Angeles Times, Seattle Times, Austin Chronicle, and San Antonio Express-News. He also wrote two books on soccer for The Overlook Press.