New York Jets Vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Player Props & Picks (9/17/23)

The New York Jets travel to face the Dallas Cowboys this week after both teams earned wins in Week 1. In this article, find Jets vs. Cowboys player props featuring Dak Prescott, Zach Wilson, and more.

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New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Picks

The Cowboys and Jets both won in primetime last week, but the Jets didn’t feel like winners last week – Aaron Rodgers is out for the rest of the season after tearing his Achilles. His absence changes everything for the Jets offense, and it will dictate player props in this matchup. Let’s get to work.

Zach Wilson Under 0.5 Interceptions (+160 DraftKings)

This is going to feel uncomfortable. It’s going to be a sweat. And it’s going to make you feel like an idiot if it doesn’t work. But I believe there’s value in this line. As bad as Zach Wilson was last season, he only threw an interception in four of his nine games. That’s a hit rate of just 44.4%.

Last week, the Jets put Zach Wilson in kid gloves. He had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 4.6 yards, the third-lowest in the NFL on the week. It’s worth noting that he was all the way at 9.7 yards last season. I expect a similar approach here – lean on the run game and defense and hope Wilson doesn’t make mistakes.

The Cowboys’ defense is excellent. It’s opportunistic and will force a ton of takeaways this season. The sportsbooks know all of this. However, Wilson only has a career turnover-worthy play rate of 4.6%. That means he’d need 22 pass attempts in this game to even get to one on average. Plug your nose. He might not get there in a game with an over/under of 38.5 points.

Garrett Wilson Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115 Caesars)

I hate to say it, but Garrett Wilson’s season might be cooked. I had such high hopes for the elite second-year talent being hyper targeted by Aaron Rodgers, but the entire tenor of the Jets’ offense changes now. Wilson finished with just five catches for 34 yards last week, despite his incredible touchdown reception.

There’s a significant dropoff from Wilson to the rest of the Jets’ wide receivers. The Cowboys will certainly key in on Wilson in this game and force Zach Wilson to beat them with the worse receivers on the roster. Against Aaron Rodgers, that strategy wouldn’t be as effective, but Wilson’s ability to throw downfield remains very shaky.

The Cowboys have outstanding cornerbacks headlined by Trevon Diggs and Stephon Gilmore, and the lights out pass rush won’t give Wilson much time to get open downfield. I’m fading Garrett Wilson until further notice, despite the full knowledge that he’s a game-breaking talent capable of overcoming these circumstances.

Dak Prescott Longest Completion Under 34.5 Yards (-115 Caesars)

The Jets’ defense frustrated Josh Allen on Monday with their ability to sit back in quarters coverage to prevent the big play while getting pressure with just four rushers. Allen threw three interceptions and had a long completion of just 13 yards in the game. He averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt as nearly every completion was underneath.

The Jets have formed one of the best defenses in the NFL with that approach as the foundation, and Dak Prescott will face that here. The Cowboys’ staff will have watched the game on Monday and understand that Prescott pushing the ball downfield isn’t the best approach against the type of defense the Jets run.

Brandin Cooks’s MCL sprain hurts the verticality of the offense as he was brought in to be a field stretcher, and I expect a heavy dose of CeeDee Lamb out of the slot in this game. Expect a very conservative approach from Mike McCarthy’s offense in this game as they’ll try to win on the back of their defense and run game.

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I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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