Get Josh Allen player prop picks & odds for the (9/11/23) matchup against the New York Jets on Monday Night Football.
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Josh Allen Player Prop Picks Picks Vs. Jets
After another playoff letdown, this time at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are looking to bounce back and make it farther in the upcoming postseason. But of course, it all starts with having an outstanding regular season and putting yourself in position come January, and the Bills will have a tough road to get there. Playing in the hyper-competitive AFC East, the Bills and Allen will get their season started with an enormous road matchup with the New York Jets on Monday Night Football, so let’s take a look at some of the best player props to invest in as you watch Allen’s primetime performance.
Josh Allen u253.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Throughout his career, Allen has become a more and more prolific passer, but this is not the spot to invest in him to rack up a lot of volume throwing the ball. The Jets are set up very well to limit the Bills through the air, with an excellent secondary headlined by All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner, who should do a great job with top wideout Stefon Diggs.
The issue for Allen here is that beyond Diggs, the Bills don’t have a whole lot in terms of pass-catching options. Dalton Kincaid could be a star down the line, but who knows what his role will be in his pro debut, and who knows what Gabe Davis and Trent Sherfield can accomplish against DJ Reed and Michael Carter II. The Bills offensive line is also woefully unequipped to give Allen time to throw against a solid Jets front seven.
Another issue with this prop is that while other quarterbacks might be forced to keep throwing even on a tough day, Allen can simply take off and make things happen with his legs; he’s arguably more special as a runner than as a passer. This brings us to another factor; game pace. Both teams should be running the ball a lot, shortening the game, limiting possessions, and thus opportunities for Allen to rack up counting stats.
Last year, in two matchups with the Jets, Allen passed for 147 and 205 yards against the Jets, including one of his worst games ever in a head to head loss against Zach Wilson. Going on the road against a much-improved Jets team, I’m not sure we’ll see much more from him on Monday.
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210 FanDuel)
The other side of Allen not passing too much is that he’s not going to just be uninvolved; he will be running the ball more, and +210 odds to score a rushing touchdown is absolutely incredible value. In those two games against the Jets last year, he scored on the ground three times, compared to just one passing touchdown.
The Jets have some personnel to limit the Bills’ more traditional running game, including the likes of between-the-tackles running back carries. This kind of approach is Damien Harris’s bread and butter, so he could definitely struggle, especially around the goal line. He had a down year with the Patriots last year as his touchdown total fell from 15 to 3, so we’ll have to see if the Bills will use him differently.
Allen, who is a QB sneak cheat code and is equally dangerous in space outside of the hashes, will be much less impacted by line play; he can attack the defense essentially on his own. A year after setting a career high for rushing attempts per game, Allen will be toting the rock early and often once again this year, and when it comes to goal-to-go situations, he is by far the Bills’ best option to punch the ball in, especially with Diggs dealing with Gardner’s lockdown coverage.
Josh Allen o0.5 Interceptions (-135 DraftKings)
One thing Allen does do a lot is throw interceptions; he’s tossed 15 and 14 over the past two seasons, nearly the most in the league in both instances. He threw two of those last year in that loss at MetLife, another testament to the excellence of this Jets secondary. Allen is going to be under a lot of pressure behind this year’s Buffalo offensive line, and while he was overall a very good quarterback under pressure last season in terms of putting up big time throws and completing passes at a good rate, he did lead the league in turnover worthy plays in pressure snaps.
His decision making is probably the single weakest part of his game, and in a game where I expect the Bills to be playing from behind, Allen is likely to find himself in a situation where he’s trying everything possible to make something happen and salvage the contest. Forcing throws is rarely a good thing, especially for someone with his turnover tendencies, so I love Allen’s odds to get picked off in this one.