MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Saturday, July 11, 2026
We had our third straight profitable night on Friday, as Jasson Dominguez hit a home run, making up for losses on Taylor Ward and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Let’s go for our fourth winning night in a row.
Today, we’re going with Miguel Vargas, Jose Caballero, and Elly De La Cruz. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 62-237 (+1.08 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, July 11
Miguel Vargas Home Run Odds
Miguel Vargas is having a fantastic season for the White Sox. Coming into Friday’s action, Vargas was slashing .239/.354/.477 with 20 home runs in 396 plate appearances. He then hit his 21st homer of the season, as the White Sox put up 14 runs in a blowout win over the Athletics.
Up next is a terrific matchup against A’s lefty Gage Jump. While the rookie has been impressive overall, he’s hit a wall lately, allowing a combined 10 earned runs in his last two outings. During this stretch, Jump has given up two homers in each of those starts.
That’s good news for Vargas because he absolutely crushes lefties. So far this year, he’s slashing .281/.410/.583 against them.
Coming off a home run on Friday, I’ll take my chances on Vargas going yard for the second game in a row. Risk 0.1 units.
Jose Caballero Home Run Odds
Jose Caballero has always been a light-hitting speed demon with minimal power, but this season, we’ve seen a bit of a power surge, as the versatile infielder already has 10 home runs, eclipsing his previous career-high of nine.
We saw Caballero homer twice back on July 6th, so he’s in a bit of a groove at the plate. That’s good news for his upcoming matchup against right-hander Miles Mikolas, who is giving up a 4.95 xERA and a 1.99 HR/9 on the season.
What’s even better is that Mikolas has been worse vs. righties, as highlighted by a .364 wOBA.
Look for the Yankees to pour on runs in this one, making Caballero worth a shot at his longshot odds to hit a home run. Risk 0.1 units.
Elly De La Cruz Home Run Odds
Elly De La Cruz was slashing .270/.345/.481 with 14 home runs in 325 plate appearances heading into Friday’s action. The stud shortstop slugged his 15th homer of the season later that night. He’s in a good spot to do so again on Saturday.
The Reds are going up Cubs’ right-hander Javier Assad, who has had issues with the long ball this year, as highlighted by a 1.6 HR/9. That’s bad news at Great American Ball Park, which is one of the most homer-friendly venues in MLB.
This is a projected high-scoring game, as reflected in the 10.5-run total. There’s a good chance that Elly can go yard yet again.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on him to hit No. 16 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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