UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Main Card Picks & Predictions for Saturday, July 11, 2026
The UFC 329 five-fight main card features some of the promotion’s top contenders, headlined by Conor McGregor’s long-awaited return in the main event. All five bouts are expected to be competitive, with Max Holloway the largest favorite on the card at -230 as of Friday afternoon.
All eyes will be on McGregor, who steps back into the octagon for the first time since breaking his leg against Dustin Poirier in 2021. He faces fellow UFC legend Holloway in a rematch of their August 2013 bout, which McGregor won via unanimous decision. Holloway, who has remained active during McGregor’s absence, enters as the favorite in the five-round welterweight main event.
The co-main event brings together two of the lightweight division’s top contenders in Paddy Pimblett and Benoît Saint-Denis. Both will be eyeing a title shot with a win on Saturday, with Pimblett looking to avenge his most recent loss to current lightweight champion Justin Gaethje. Saint-Denis has looked like one of the most dangerous fighters in the division, racking up four consecutive early stoppages heading into Saturday. The Frenchman enters as a slight favorite over Pimblett.
With that context set, here are the top prop market picks for the UFC 329 main card.
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Benoît Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett – Paddy Pimblett to Win & Over 1.5 Rounds (+200)
We’re backing Pimblett to bounce back from his first UFC defeat in a big way against Saint-Denis on Saturday. Despite the loss to Gaethje, he proved his toughness by pushing the fight to the final bell over a punishing five rounds. He will need that same resilience here, with Saint-Denis carrying serious knockout power and, perhaps more dangerously, an elite submission game with 11 career finishes on the ground.
Pimblett is well-equipped to handle the Frenchman, given his elite jiu-jitsu background; he has been submitted just once in his professional career, back in 2013. His takedown defense should hold up well against Saint-Denis’ submission attempts. I like Pimblett’s power in this matchup, with Saint-Denis having shown chin concerns in two of his three UFC losses, having been knocked out in back-to-back fights before his current four-fight winning streak. Pimblett, who has seven career knockouts, has the tools to hurt or finish Saint-Denis early.
Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista – Fight to Go the Distance: No (+150)
Sandhagen and Bautista meet for the first time since Sandhagen submitted Bautista back in 2019. The 34-year-old returns after over nine months away from competition following his bantamweight title fight loss to Merab Dvalishvili in 2025. Sandhagen enters as a slight favorite over Bautista, who picked up a submission victory over Vinícius Oliveira earlier this year.
Bautista, known for his well-rounded game, has been involved in early stoppages in seven of his 14 UFC fights, with Sandhagen responsible for one of them, submitting Bautista in his promotional debut. Sandhagen himself has eight career knockouts and three submission wins, meaning early finishes account for over 60% of his professional victories. Both men have shown decent chins, with Bautista being the only one to have been knocked out in his career. This fight is likely to end via submission or ground-and-pound once one fighter establishes control.
Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway – Max Holloway Over 84.5 Significant Strikes Landed (+110)
It is difficult to know what to expect from McGregor after a five-year absence from MMA. Once regarded as the most dangerous striker on the UFC roster, the Irishman compiled eight of his 10 UFC victories by knockout with his unique karate-influenced style. Replicating that output against a seasoned veteran like Holloway, nearly 13 years after their first fight, seems like a tall order.
Holloway, who holds the UFC record for most significant strikes landed in history, will undoubtedly put on a far better showing than he did in 2013, when he landed just 23 significant strikes across three rounds – 30 fewer than McGregor. The then 21-year-old has since evolved into a completely different fighter. Now 34, Holloway has averaged 121 significant strikes across his last four bouts. With the main event scheduled for five rounds and Holloway on record saying he wants to take his time with the Irishman, expect a sustained barrage of significant strikes from the Hawaiian.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
