NBA Best Player Prop Picks, Odds, Predictions for Friday, May 22, 2026
The Thunder clawed their way to a Game 2 win against the Spurs on Wednesday, but it’s apparent this series could well go six or seven games given how much of a tough matchup San Antonio clearly presents for the defending champions. Key injuries are also playing a part in the series, and we could well be in for another wire-to-wire battle with the series shifting to Frost Bank Center for Game 3.
As customary, we zero in on three player props to consider for tonight’s action. Also, be sure to check out our daily NBA betting trends page for odds and data on every game.
Friday’s Best NBA Player Props
- Victor Wembanyama (SAO) – Over Rebounds
- Chet Holmgren (OKC) – Over Points + Rebounds
- Stephon Castle (SAO) – Over Points
2026 Playoff Prop Bet Tracker: 53-39 (+9.23 units)
Victor Wembanyama (SAO) – Over Rebounds
The overriding reason for the Spurs’ success in the first two games has unsurprisingly been the play of Wembanyama, who set a record in Game 1 and then put together a pretty impressive encore in Game 2. Wemby is averaging a massive 56.0 points + rebounds + assists across 43.0 minutes in the first two games, including 20.5 rebounds per contest. The 2023 first overall pick is now converting 64.9% of his 19.0 rebounding chances per contest in the postseason, including 66.1% of his 31.0 per contest over the first two games of the series.
Wembanyama has recorded at least 14 rebounds in seven of 10 playoff games, and he finished with 12 in one of the three games he fell short in. OKC has mostly been very stingy against centers since the start of the regular season, but the 7-foot-4 Wembanyama is obviously one of one and the ultimate exception to the rule. As the previously cited numbers indicate, the Thunder have largely been ineffective at slowing down Wemby on the glass, so a 14-rebound-or-better night on his home floor is within the range of outcomes.
Original line publish: 13.5
Chet Holmgren (OKC) – Over Points + Rebounds
Holmgren has disappointed overall in the first two games of the series, averaging just 16.5 points + rebounds over 34.0 minutes per contest. The big man is shooting only 41.2% overall in that span, including 33.3% from behind the arc. Holmgren had been much more consistent during the second-round series against the Lakers, when he averaged 27.7 points + rebounds while draining 60% of his attempts. Holmgren notably also averaged 11.9 field-goal attempts in that stretch, as opposed to 8.5 in the first two games against the Spurs.
However, given how tough the Spurs have played in the first two games and the fact the series has shifted to their home floor, the Thunder will undoubtedly come out with an aggressive mindset. Additionally, it appears increasingly likely Jalen Williams will sit out due to the aggravation of the hamstring injury that forced his early exit in Game 2. Holmgren is averaging 30.5 points + rebounds per 36 minutes this postseason with Williams off the floor, a split in which he’s also averaged 13.7 shot attempts in that time interval. He was also 7-1 to the Over on the 21.5 in the first two postseason series, furthering his case.
Original Line Publish: 21.5
Stephon Castle (SAO) – Over Points
Castle put together another impressive postseason performance in Game 2, one that included a thunderous dunk over Isaiah Hartenstein that will live on in Spurs playoff lore. The 2024 fourth overall pick finished with 25 points on 10-for-17 shooting, pushing his scoring average this postseason average to 20.1 points per contest on 48.9% shooting. While Castle has scored over 18.5 points in only five of his 13 playoff games, it’s worth noting he’s come within a bucket or less of cashing this prop on five other occasions in that sample by recording 17 or 18 points.
Castle is now shooting 52.6% overall against the Thunder in seven games since the start of the regular season, regularly succeeding in what is typically one of the toughest matchups in the league. He also has the potential to start finding the net more often from three-point range despite going just 2-for-12 from behind the arc in the first two games — the Thunder has surrendered 14.5 made threes per road game since the start of the regular season.
Original Line Publish: 18.5
Photo Credit: AP/Tony Gutierrez
