NFL Anytime Touchdown Odds & Best Bets (9/10/23): Week 1 Anytime TD Picks

Get Anytime Touchdown player prop picks & odds for the (9/10/23) NFL Sunday slate.

Anytime Touchdown Player Prop Picks

The first Sunday slate of the 2023 season is here! Check out below for Anytime Touchdown best bets. In this prop, the goal is to select a player who scores at least one rushing or receiving touchdown at any point in the game (passing touchdowns do not count for QBs).

Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown (+105 DK)

Jefferson ranked first in targets and second in both red zone targets and inside the ten-yard-line targets. He’s the best receiver in the NFL and a lock to record a few explosive plays every game. The Vikings are an extremely pass-heavy team, and quarterback Kirk Cousins loves to look Jefferson’s way. 

Jefferson only caught eight touchdowns last season, but PFF had him at 11.1 expected touchdowns – the second highest mark in the league. Even if we assume Jefferson sees no positive regression (which isn’t likely) and catches eight touchdowns again, that would be a touchdown in 8 of 17 games (47 percent). At +105 odds, Jefferson needs to score a touchdown around 48 percent of the time in order for the bet to be profitable. Therefore, this bet is essentially a break-even bet if Jefferson hits on the lower range of his outcomes and a profitable bet if he hits in the middle or upper range of his outcomes. As a bettor, it’s difficult to ask for a superior situation. 

Christian Kirk Anytime Touchdown (+160 DK)

In addition to First Touchdown, Christian Kirk is an excellent play for Anytime Touchdown. Last season, he displayed immediate chemistry with quarterback Trevor Lawrence and subsequently ranked eighth in red zone targets and third in red zone touchdowns. He also notched the ninth most targets inside the ten-yard-line, which led to the third most touchdowns in this area. 

With Calvin Ridley in town, Kirk won’t face the opponent’s top corner anymore either, which allows him the chance to create separation against inferior defenders. He should accomplish this task easily, as the Colts have one of the worst secondaries in football. Overall, the Jaguars should demolish this Colts defense through the air and secure plenty of scoring opportunities. 

Based on the odds, Kirk only needs to score a touchdown here around 38 percent of the time for the bet to hold a positive expected value.

Jahan Dotson Anytime Touchdown (+240 DK)

Another First Touchdown play that holds plenty of Anytime Touchdown intrigue. Dotson grabbed seven touchdowns in twelve games last season, and he appears to be Sam Howell’s favorite target after a productive off-season. His catch radius indicates red zone usage, and Dotson’s route running is quickly allowing him more opportunities. 

The Commanders face an abysmal Cardinals defense, so it’s feasible that Washington clears four or five touchdowns here. Considering the abundance of projected scoring chances and Dotson’s quick ascension and nose for the end zone, he should score here more often than not. To get +240 odds is an absolute steal; he must score a touchdown around 29 percent of the time to hold a positive expected value. In other words, if this game was simulated ten times, Dotson would only need to score in three of them for the bet to be profitable. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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