Get Packers vs. Bears player prop picks & odds for the (9/10/23) matchup
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Packers vs. Bears Player Prop Picks
One of the best games in week 1 of the 2023 NFL season is the Green Bay Packers against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. The Bears are hoping Justin Fields makes a big improvement in his 3rd season with more weapons and a better offensive line around him. The Packers are hoping their young quarterback Jordan Love was worth the wait.
Let’s take a look at some of the player prop betting odds and pick the best Packers vs. Bears player prop bets for this week 1 matchup.
DJ Moore over 3.5 receptions (-120 at DraftKings)
One of our favorite offseason moves this year was the Bears acquiring DJ Moore to give Justin Fields a legitimate #1 wide receiver. Moore’s presence in the Bears’ offense could have a similar effect on Fields as the Bills’ Stefon Diggs had for Josh Allen and the Eagles’ AJ Brown had for Jalen Hurts.
If that happens, then both Moore and Fields should be primed for some big numbers this season, and that will start with this week 1 matchup. Fields is going to look for Moore early and often in this game, even if he is matched up with one of the best cover cornerbacks in the league in the Packers’ Jaire Alexander.
That matchup with Alexander is why we like the over on Moore’s receptions more than we do the yardage. Moore might struggle to make plays down field against Alexander and the rest of the Packers’ strong secondary, but we expect the Bears to manufacture opportunities to get the ball in Moore’s hands, including on bubble screens and short crossing patterns.
Moore had at least 4 catches in 9 of his 16 games played last season including 4 of his last 5. That was on a Carolina team with the likes of Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and P.J. Walker playing quarterback. Fields may still be developing as a passer, but he is still a big improvement for Moore over the quarterbacks he has played with for most of his career.
The Bears are still going to run the ball plenty, including with Justin Fields, but when they throw it they’re going to throw it to DJ Moore.
Justin Fields over 55.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Speaking of Fields running the ball, we expect him to pick up where he left off last season on the ground. After week 5 last season, Fields rushed for over 55.5 yards in 9 out of 10 games. He hit the over on his rushing yards in every single one of those games and in 12 out of 15 games overall.
One of the games that he failed to hit the over was against Green Bay, but that was in week 2 before he started figuring things out. When these teams played again in week 13, Fields amassed 71 yards rushing on just 6 carries.
The biggest risk with this pick is just the uncertainty of a new season, when last season’s performance doesn’t necessarily carry over. The Bears want to (and should) be more balanced offensively without relying so heavily on Fields’ legs. But when you own a Ferrari, you don’t just leave it in the garage.
Even if Fields’ overall rushing production declines this season, he should still be able to eclipse 55 yards on the ground most of the time. It also happens to be one of the best ways to attack the Packers, who were 26th in rushing defense last season and 26th at defending QBs on the ground, but they were 6th against the pass.
Fields will do plenty of damage both on the ground and through the air in this game and will go over 55.5 rushing yards.