Patrick Mahomes NFL Player Props & Picks (10/1/23) Vs. New York Jets

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets kicks off this Sunday at 8:20pm EST in New Jersey as a home game for the Jets. The Chiefs are currently a -8.5 favorite and -395 on the moneyline while the total is set at 41.5. Expect the Jets secondary to slow down the Chiefs pass attack, giving value towards Patrick Mahomes player prop unders in this Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets matchup.

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After a loss to the Lions without two of their best players in Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, the Chiefs have bounced back and reminded the nation that they are here to stay. Granted their most recent outing was against arguably one of the worst teams in football, yet still an impressive offense showing nonetheless. The Jets season long hopes may have been diminished with the injury to Rodgers, but their defense is still nasty and more than capable of limiting the on-field production of Mahomes and the Chiefs offensive attack.

Patrick Mahomes u2.5 Passing Touchdowns

It may be juicy, but fading Mahomes in the red zone may be the way to go as the Jets secondary greatly benefits from being able to stretch out their coverage in a shortened field.

The Jets defense is elite, being more than capable of rushing four and dropping back seven in coverage. This forces the Chiefs to beat them with the short throw or the run, negating fluke explosiveness and taking the ball out of Mahomes’ hands by handing it off.

While 1.5 is certainly in play, I will take the added security at the risk of putting in more of an investment at 2.5. The Jets defense is the first elite defense that the Chiefs will face, potentially stalling out the Chiefs offense at various points of the contest and stripping away high-quality scoring attempts.

It felt like the #Jets defense got a sack every single time the Pats got near the redzone in this game pic.twitter.com/5l2ovgkIXW

— NYJ MIKE (@NyjMike) September 22, 2023

While efficiency has gone up, Mahomes still flirts with turn over worthy throws with his hyper aggressive passing style. If under pressure with the Jets defensive line collapsing the pocket, this forces Mahomes to revert back to his old ways of slinging a prayer down field. With turnovers comes less possessions, negating the amount of attempts he has to clear this number.

Patrick Mahomes Over 16.5 Rushing Yards

With the Jets offense fielding an abysmal unit, it’s up to their defense to create as many early outs as possible to give them a puncher’s chance. That means we may see an uptick in blitz packages, forcing the ball out of Mahomes’ hands faster to throw into tightened passing windows.

Better yet, we may see Mahomes take off into the open field as the Jets pressure comes from the sides. He did the same against the Lions edge rushers, sprinting towards the gaps from the tackle and racking up rush yards against a back peddling secondary.

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