Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Buffalo as a home game for the Bills. The Bills are currently a -8.5 favorite and -385 on the moneyline while the total is set at 47. Josh Allen is poised for a bounce back while Josh Jacobs looks to exploit the middle, both possessing value as Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills player props.
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It was as brutal of a start that Josh Allen could experience to open the season as he threw for three interceptions and coughed up one fumble against the elite Jets defense. As for the Raiders, they skated by with a win but now have to face a much tougher secondary with the Bills looking to get back on track. Josh Jacobs is poised for a big game, but the receiving core may take a hit as regression looms large.
Josh Allen Under 0.5 Interceptions
Josh Allen’s poor performance cannot be overstated. The Bills lost because of his inability to take care of the ball. Granted two of the interceptions were basically arm punts in an attempt to pin the Jets on the opposite side, but that doesn’t take away the fact that it still killed one of their own possessions.
Interceptions have been an issue in Josh Allen’s career, struggling to make the right read when under pressure. In the offseason, Josh Allen was both the MVP favorite and to lead the league in interceptions favorite. A perfect picture of how the gunslinger operates under center. The Jets put that on full display by sending constant pressure to the Bills backfield, getting a man in Allen’s face and forcing him to throw into tight windows.
Lucky for the Bills offense this time around, the Raiders defense is going to be a drastic step back in production in comparison to the Jets defense. They possess one of the worst secondaries in the league and their pass rush starts and ends with Max Crosby.
By simply tweaking their scheme to send help side blocking on Crosby, Allen will find himself with plenty of time in a clean pocket to make the right read. Factor in the extra room to work with in the open field and turn over worthy throws should be minimized.
Jimmy Garoppolo Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
While I am expecting a bounce back performance from Josh Allen, regression is looming large over Jimmy G and the Raiders offense. He had a respectable first outing, finishing the contest against the Broncos with 200 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.
While the Broncos are pegged as one of the better defenses in the league, they had an underwhelming outing as the Raiders middling offensive line actually did a good job at holding their ground.
JIMMY GAROPPOLO DIME TD pic.twitter.com/OfDHBqouil
— Alex 👋 (@Dubs408) September 10, 2023
They now get a Bills pass rush who just clocked in over 20 quarterback pressures. Von Miller is still out, but the Bills had no issue with sending an extra blitzer to ramp up the pressure.
With the added pressure to the backfield, the Raiders would be wise to turn to their star running back instead of putting Jimmy G into a less than ideal situation. Especially in the red zone where the defense can stretch out and cover more ground against the pass.
Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown
While the Bills secondary is one of the more stout coverage units in football, their rush defense was less to be desired. Breece Hall found himself with plenty of open field to work with, rushing for 127 yards on 10 attempts.
With extra pressure causing fits to the Raiders pass attack, they may revert to a heavier dose of the run. With extra attempts comes a higher percent chance of this hitting should they find themselves in a short yardage situation in the red zone.
Davante Adams Under 73.5 Receiving Yards
Correlating a heavier dose of the run comes with an under in the form of Davante Adams receiving yards. He already saw a limited number of attempts thrown his way, only hauling in six receptions for 66 yards against the Broncos defense.
Jimmy G now has to find a way to connect with his star deep threat target while under heavier pressure and against a far tougher secondary. Not exactly an ideal recipe for success. Should they use Adams more across the middle for short throws, the Bills do a great job at limiting the play making in front of them and can negate the big gain in the open field.