Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (9/25/23)

The Los Angeles Rams battle the Cincinnati Bengals in Monday Night Football. Check out below for Rams vs. Bengals First Touchdown best bets, as well as a first TD search tool to optimize odds shopping.

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which players will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will accomplish this in the Rams vs. Bengals contest? 

Kyren Williams First Touchdown (+650 BMGM)

With Cam Akers traded to Minnesota, Kyren Williams now fully commands Los Angeles’ backfield. He currently ranks fourth in red zone attempts and eight in inside the ten-yard-line attempts across the NFL despite not playing Week Three yet. The volume is there, and his pass-catching abilities perfectly mesh with Matthew Stafford, who loves to utilize the short areas of the field.

Kyren faces a Bengals defense that is allowing five yards per rush and a rushing touchdown per game. Stafford can drive the ball with Nacua, Atwell, and Williams through the air as well, although Los Angeles’ lack of a huge end zone target helps remove touchdown competition for Williams. Finally, it’s worth noting that Kyren Williams has scored Los Angeles’ first touchdown in every game so far.   

He must score first about 13 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.

Tee Higgins First Touchdown (+1100 FD)

Tee Higgins is tied with Ja’Marr Chase for red zone targets and inside the ten-yard-line targets, although Higgins has been far more successful with his opportunities. The 6’4” Clemson product already has 20 targets and two touchdowns through the first two weeks, and he led the NFL entering this week in Air Yards Share per Ryan Heath. Higgins’ contested catch prowess grants him a massive red zone advantage over Los Angeles’ dreadful secondary too, which ranks dead last in PFF’s coverage grade. 

Burrow’s calf injury limits Cincinnati’s offensive effectiveness, but it also swells Higgins’ first touchdowns odds. Based on his odds, he must score the first touchdown about eight percent of the time. Even with Burrow injured, the talent gap between Higgins and this secondary means he is a constant threat to score.

Ja’Marr Chase First Bengals Touchdown (+310 BMGM)

Chase has struggled to start the year, as he has 70 yards and no touchdowns through the first two weeks. However, his red zone volume is encouraging, and he remains one of the most talented receivers in the NFL. It’s a perfect bounceback spot against Los Angeles’ horrific secondary, and Chase cannot be contained for long. Plus, it’s not difficult to fade Joe Mixon considering Cincinnait’s terrible run blocking and the fact that Aaron Donald awaits them. 

Look for this Bengals aerial attack to finally find a semblance of life and put up respectable numbers. That starts with Higgins and Chase, who form arguably the most talented receiver duo in the league. Chase must score the Bengals’ first touchdown about 24 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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