New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Green Bay as a home game for the Packers. New Orleans is currently a +2 underdog and +105 on the moneyline while the total is set at 42.5. Read on for more New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers best bets and predictions as New Orleans looks to win outright on the road.
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction & Best Bet
Safe to say the transition to Jordan Love has been a lot smoother than expected as the Packers offense has remained competitive with their new quarterback under center. They have even been without Christian Watson in both contests, losing a dynamic downfield threat and a reliable go-to target. If it wasn’t for ultra conservative play calling late in the fourth quarter against the Falcons, then the Packers could realistically be 2-0.
As for the Saints, their offense has struggled with consistency under their new quarterback Derek Carr. Struggles in the Red zone have continued to haunt Carr, sputtering near the finish line as he struggles to throw into tighter windows against a shortened field. That was a common theme for him when he was at the Raiders, showing this may be the norm instead of a candidate for positive regression.
A big reason for the Saints offensive struggles is their lack of pass protection. They rank bottom 10 in PFF Grade and bottom 5 in Win Rate per ESPN. By losing on the line, Carr has found himself in a collapsing pocket and having to get the ball out of his hands in a hurry. While their play style revolves around quick outs, it still hampers the urgency and accuracy as Carr is under pressure.
Lucky for the Saints, the Packers defense is average at best in Def EPA and lacks multiple efficient pass rushers to rattle Carr under center. Michael Thomas and Chris Olave with time in the open field will consistently create separation against the Packers secondary. Losing Jamaal Williams hurts but backup Tony Jones Jr will be poised for a bounce back performance against one of the worst rush defenses in the league.
With a defensive line featuring two of the top five highest pressure rates from lineman, the Saints should have no issue with putting Jordan Love in uncomfortable positions. He has teetered with turnover worthy plays but now faces a defense that is more than capable of capitalizing on them.
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction & Best Bet: Saints +2
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds
Oddsmakers believe both sides are near even, giving the slight lean to the Packers by opening them as a -1 favorite. Bettors are in agreement, backing the Packers up to -2 in some shops as of writing. With Aaron Jones trending in the right direction to make his return in the backfield, the Packers offense will feature another threat to help burn the Saints defense.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 43. Bettors have been in slight disagreement, backing the under down to 42.5. This is correlated to the idea of the Packers defense taking advantage of the Saints sputtering offense, forcing stalled out drives that creates huge swings for the under.
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers Key Injuries
While the Jags are fairly healthy outside of Jamaal Williams, the Packers injury report features plenty of big names including Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, David Bakhtiari, and Rashan Gary.
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers Key Matchups
Can Derek Carr find red zone success against the Packers?
Derek Carr Vs. Packers Red Zone Defense
Derek Carr’s red zone struggles can’t be overstated as it has been a common theme throughout his career and creates serious deflating swings as they fail to convert for seven. He looks rattled while surveying the tightened field, failing to connect in tight windows or shift the defense to create gaps.
worst QB inside the 10, part 1 pic.twitter.com/g6rSkPycmq
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 30, 2023
The Packers defense has been a weakness for the team the past few years but have fared well when defending inside the 20. They rank top-10 in Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage (touchdowns only) per TeamRankings. To negate these struggles, the Saints would be wise to take advantage of the Packers weak rush defense and call a heavier dose of the run instead of relying on Carr to squeeze one in.