After both teams were playoff surprises last season, the New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks have had very different starts to their 2023 seasons. Their upcoming meeting on Monday Night Football could be a big tone-setter for either squad going forward, so with key players like DK Metcalf and Daniel Jones taking the field, let’s take a look at some Seahawks vs. Giants player props.
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In a game between two of the worst defenses in the league- the Giants are 30th in the league in defensive expected points added per snap and the Seahawks are 27th- there should be plenty of offense, but not everyone’s up to the task; let’s dive into some player props.
Graham Gano Over 1.5 Field Goals Made
Finally, we have the opportunity to bet the over for a kicker, this one due to both the veteran’s solid track record and the potential game script for what could be a legitimate shootout. The Giants were stifled by the 49ers in their last game, but that’s hardly a unique distinction- that defense is going to shut down a lot of offenses this year- and they finally showed signs of life in a tremendous comeback against the Cardinals a week prior. According to EPA per play, this Seahawks defense has actually been worse than that Cardinals unit, so the Giants could be in for a productive day where they should be able to move the ball pretty effectively.
That being said, it’s not as clear how the Giants plan to actually cap off their drives with touchdowns. Saquon Barkley is one of the better red zone players in the league, but he is of course out for this one with an injury. With him potentially out or at least limited, the Giants don’t have a true power back, and their receiving corps is notoriously pedestrian. Darren Waller should fill that void, but he hasn’t been off to a great start and regardless, he can’t do it every drive. That’s where Gano comes in; with the potential to run plenty of drives into Seahawks territory and not a lot of great options to convert them into six points, Brian Daboll will turn to his kicker to salvage three.
Daniel Jones Longest Completion Under 35.5 Yards (-120)
Daniel Jones’s contract is a waste of money I’ll never fully comprehend, as he’s simply not good enough to hack it as the starting quarterback for a serious team. One of the areas in which he’s the most deficient is throwing the ball downfield, making this under for his longest completion an outstanding investment. He’s eclipsed this number in just one game this season, with his longest tosses against the Cowboys and Niners going for 24 and 18 yards, respectively.
Jones ranks 26th out of 34 qualified passers with an average depth of target of just 7.3 yards, so it’s not as if the Giants are really even trying to go for the big plays, they usually opt to grab yardage bit by bit with high-percentage plays. When the Giants do go long, Jones doesn’t really reward their faith; so far this year he has made just two big time throws on 97 pass attempts, as he has completed just two of his seven throws more than 20 yards downfield. The numbers weren’t too different last year, as he made just six big time throws on his deep balls.
Of course, it’s not entirely Jones’s fault; as we’ve discussed, the Giants don’t really have too many downfield receiving options, and Brian Daboll’s system doesn’t really ask much of Jones as a passer, relying on him to make big plays with his legs much more often. Rookie burner Jalin Hyatt has some potential to break defenses, but he isn’t being used much yet, so until he has a more prominent role, expect Jones to check down much more than he goes deep.
DK Metcalf Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Metcalf is a big-play receiver who can rip through yardage totals like this with just a couple of plays, but expect the ball to be coming his way early and often in this matchup. Geno Smith was top ten in the league last year in total deep balls attempted, and he was even better at completing them as he ranked second among qualifiers in that category. Metcalf was a serious beneficiary as he was in the top 20 in terms of targets 20 yards or deeper, and while that hasn’t played out yet this year, this is the perfect time for the duo to recharge their deep ball connection.
Things are already starting to go better; after scraping to 47 yards in the season opener, Metcalf worked his total up to 75 and 112 in his past two games. Against a Giants secondary that is bottom five by just about every metric and is starting two rookie cornerbacks, he should be able to continue shaking off the rust and surging towards his top levels of productivity.
Metcalf is of course one of the most physical wideouts in the league, with a combination of speed and size rarely seen at the position outside of a few true anomalies. As such, he’s an expert at picking apart man coverage by physically besting whoever draws his assignment in a one-on-one scenario.
His worst performance was against the Rams, a secondary that isn’t particularly high in talent but is quite zone-heavy, and this week he’ll get to face Wink Martindale’s defense, which is almost exclusively a man coverage concept. In a game that should feature downfield passing all the way through, expect Metcalf to be heavily involved.