Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Player Props & Picks (9/24/23)

The Houston Texans meet the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. Check out below for Texans vs. Jaguars player prop odds, predictions, and best bets, including Travis Etienne and Nico Collins.

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Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Picks

Which players will provide their respective team a needed boost in the Texans vs. Jaguars game?

Travis Etienne Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DK)

Per PFF, Travis Etienne is 12th in yards after contact per attempt and 8th in missed tackles forced (min. 20 attempts). He’s an explosive back that combines shiftiness with speed, and Etienne has an optimal matchup here. The Texans are allowing 4.3 yards per rush and grade dead last in run defense per PFF, which is nothing new – Houston has always struggled to stop the run recently.

Because Jacksonville should hold a comfortable lead, they will hold a higher run frequency than usual in order to bleed the clock. Therefore, Etienne should see increased volume and abnormal efficiency, which is a perfect recipe for the over on rushing yards.

He needs to hit 68 yards about 53 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.

Travis Etienne First Touchdown (+550 DK) & Anytime Touchdown (-110 DK)

As stated above, Houston struggles mightily against a strong rushing attack, and that holds true in the red zone. Last season, the Texans allowed the second most red zone rushing touchdowns and the fourth fewest red zone passing touchdowns. Although star cornerback Derek Stingley Jr is out, Houston still has reliable options in Tavierre Thomas and Steven Nelson.

Jacksonville will find it far easier to score via Etienne, so expect the Jaguars to feed him the ball once they reach the red zone. They have a history of doing so too, as Etienne ranked 10th in red zone touches last season across the NFL and 10th in inside the five-yard-line touches.

Etienne must score the first touchdown about 15 percent of the time and an anytime touchdown about 52 percent of the time based on the odds.

Nico Collins Over 55.5 Reception Yards (-105 PointsBet)

Collins has 226 receptions yards and a whopping 270 air yards across the first two games, and the 6’4” receiver easily leads Houston in First Read Target Share per Fantasy Points analyst Ryan Heath. CJ Stroud has a strong connection with Collins, and he’s prioritizing him as a result. Opponents are averaging 256.5 passing yards per game against Jacksonville, which is the eight highest figure currently.

The expected game script favors Collins because the Texans will need to throw a ton in order to catch up quickly. Look for Stroud to heavily target Collins, and the blossoming receiver should win his reps more often than not.

Collins must reach 56 yards about 51 percent of the time here. Otherwise, it’s not a long-term profitable bet based on the odds.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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