Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Cleveland as a home game for the Browns. The Titans are currently a +3.5 underdog and +162 on the moneyline while the total is set at 39.5. With two stout defenses set to battle it out, unders for the likes of Deshaun Watson and Derrick Henry show value as Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns player props.
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It was as ugly as it got for the Cleveland Browns as turnovers were abundant against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their turnovers eventually outdone them, resulting in a shocking loss after an impressive defensive performance. They now go against an improved Titans defense now that their secondary is fully healthy, potentially giving us another ugly Deshaun Watson outing.
Deshaun Watson Over 0.5 Interceptions
The more opportunities Deshaun Watson gets the less I feel like he is capable of rounding back into his Houston Texans form. A once elite dual threat quarterback, now reduced to a shell of his former self.
His accuracy and decision making has remained questionable at best, struggling to make the right read and constantly throwing into tight windows. That was on full display against the Steelers, throwing an ugly pick six to kick off the game.
He now goes against a Titans defense that has quickly turned around their poor Def DVOA marks now that they are back to full health. They mask their formations with a heavy dose of disguises, taking advantage of quarterbacks who struggle with decision making.
Deshaun Watson Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
The fading of Deshaun Watson’s throwing ability continues as touchdowns may come at a premium in what is expected to be a low scoring affair. Especially as they near the goal line, potentially opting into the idea of letting Jerome Ford punch it in instead of trusting Watson to find success through the air.
The Browns struggle as is to move the ball down the field at a consistent rate, giving their offense limited high quality scoring opportunities. Not only are their scoring chances limited, but passing may be the second option in a shortened field until Watson can prove to weave the ball in tight gaps again.
WOW, PICK SIX FOR DESHAUN WATSON TO START THE GAME AFTER A DROPpic.twitter.com/uwGcXoy2bV
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 19, 2023
Jerome Ford bursting onto the scene after Nick Chubb’s injury also may cut into Watson’s pass attempts as the Browns will want to see if he can continue to find success on the ground. He diced up the Steelers to the tune of 106 yards on 16 attempts, now getting a weaker Titans defensive line to find success against.
Factor in Kareem Hunt as another goal line back and the few scoring opportunities that Watson will get may come on the ground instead of through the air. There’s also the factor that Watson may have his number called in designed runs, taking away precious passing attempts as well.
Derrick Henry Under 72.5 Rushing Yards
It’s never settling on the stomach to take an under rushing prop for Derrick Henry, but rush success will be extremely hard to come by against this Browns defense. Ranked top-3 in Def EPA, the Browns have done a masterful job at limiting opposing downfield success off the backs of their defense.
As for Henry, a brunt of his success comes against opposing defenses that field a weak defensive line. Once he hits the second level of the defense is when Henry racks up yards at a time as he imposes his strength against smaller defenders.
That won’t be easy to come by this time around as the Browns defensive line has a massive advantage against the weak Titans offensive line. Factor in the thought of a heavier dose of the play action pass to trick the stout Browns defense and Henry will see his attempts cut down to size as well.
Ryan Tannehill Over 27.5 Pass Attempts
Multiple factors go into this intriguing prop bet, especially with Derrick Henry expected to struggle against the Browns front seven. Against one of the best defenses in the league, we may see the Titans opt into the idea of more trickery with the play action in an attempt to lull the Browns secondary to sleep.
With the Titans as slight under dogs and in a game featuring a low total, the blowout factor is potentially reduced. That implies the Titans will be in a situation of playing from behind instead of abusing the clock draining run with a lead.
This number can be found as high as 30.5 so be sure to shop around with multiple books to get the best number.