Get Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints player prop picks & odds for the (9/10/23) matchup
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Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Picks
The Tennessee Titans open their season against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon. Check out below for player prop best bets in this Week One contest.
Derrick Henry Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BMGM)
“King Henry” shook off his 2021 season-ending injury and once again demolished NFL defenses to the tune of 1,538 rushing yards. Of the 33 running backs with at least 150 attempts, he was third in yards after contact per attempt, third in missed tackles forced, and perhaps most importantly, first in attempts (per PFF). Henry remains the gold standard of workhorse running backs, and he has an excellent opportunity to thrive here. New Orleans owns a frail interior defensive line that Tennessee’s revamped offensive line can generate push against. Look for Henry to break through a few times for significant chunks of yards, which will help him achieve the over.
Henry must hit 79 rushing yards around 53 percent of the time for the bet to hold a positive expected value. Last season, Henry accomplished this feat in 12 of 16 games, which is 75 percent of the time. Based on the matchup, expected volume, and Henry’s production history, the Titans star running back should clear the 53 percent threshold.
Chris Olave 60+ Receiving Yards (-154 FD)
Saints receiver Chris Olave is set to explode this year. The former 11th overall pick recorded 1,042 yards during his rookie season, and of the 60 wide receivers with at least 70 targets, Olave ranked fourth in average depth of target (per PFF). Enter new quarterback Derek Carr, who ranked fourth in average depth of target among the 30 quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks. Carr isn’t afraid to take shots downfield, and Olave is in prime position to capitalize against an average Titans secondary.
Given the -154 odds, Olave must hit 60 yards around 60 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value. He cleared 60 yards in 9 of 15 games – exactly 60 percent – so an improved sophomore Olave should hold his end of the bargain on the theoretical side. That’s all a bettor can ask for, which makes this a desirable line despite the juice.
Juwan Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+330 FD)
Johnson led the Saints last season in receiving touchdowns, red zone touchdowns, red zone targets, and inside the ten-yard-line targets. Over the past two seasons, 20 percent of his receptions have been touchdowns. The 6’4” tight end has the quickness to lose linebackers and the size to bully corners. Tennessee’s stout defensive line can fend off New Orleans’ rushing attack, and Derek Carr looks for his tight ends inside the red zone.
For a bet on Johnson Anytime Touchdown to hold a positive expected value, he has to score a touchdown around 23 percent of the time. Last season, he scored in 5 of 16 games (31 percent).