Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (11/19/23)

The Minnesota Vikings battle the Denver Broncos in Sunday Night Football (11/19/23). Get Vikings vs. Broncos First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Thursday night’s game.

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score the first touchdown in the Vikings vs. Broncos game?

Courtland Sutton First Broncos TD (+490 FD) & Javonte Williams First Broncos TD (+290 FD)

The Vikings have scored the first touchdown in 70 percent of games, while the Broncos sit at 66.6 percent. Because both teams hold a similar rate, targeting team first touchdowns is wiser. 

Sutton owns 36 percent of Denver’s touchdowns, 33 percent of their red zone targets, and 44 percent of their first team touchdowns. In other words, he’s Russell Wilson’s clear go-to guy for scoring opportunities. The Vikings have allowed 14 passing touchdowns compared to 7 rushing touchdowns, and outside receivers have been especially effective against them. Therefore, it’s more likely that Denver scores via the air. 

Outside of Sutton, Williams possesses the most first touchdown equity. He ranks 18th across the NFL in red zone carries despite playing in only seven games. Williams is also a significant pass-catching threat, which opens up numerous avenues for him to score. 

Sutton must score Denver’s first touchdown about 17 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value. Williams, on the other hand, is at 25.7 percent. 

Alexander Mattison First Vikings TD (+600 FD) & Joshua Dobbs First Vikings TD (+650 FD)

Mattison logged a full practice on Friday after suffering a concussion last game, so he’s good to go. Mattison hasn’t been a touchdown monster (only three all year), but his matchup is excellent. Denver’s defense has surrendered the seventh most rushing touchdowns and ranks 31st in opponent rush expected points added per play. Meanwhile, their secondary has drastically improved over the past few weeks, and Jordan Addison will find it difficult to create space against cornerback Patrick Surtain II. 

In addition to Mattison, quarterback Josh Dobbs can shred Denver on the ground. He’s an elite scrambler who has scored a rushing touchdown in four straight games. With the defense focused on stopping Addison and Hockenson, Dobbs will frequently be able to catch them off guard. 

Mattison needs to score Minnesota’s first touchdown roughly 14.3 percent of the time, and Dobbs is at roughly 13.4 percent.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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