Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (9/14/23)

The Minnesota Vikings take on the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. Check out below for Vikings vs. Eagles First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles First Touchdown Odds

Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which players will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will accomplish this feat in the Vikings vs. Eagles contest?

AJ Brown First Touchdown (+800 FD) & First Eagles Touchdown (+450 BMGM)

Last season, AJ Brown led the Eagles in targets, yards, touchdowns, red zone targets, and inside the ten-yard-line targets. He’s Philadelphia’s top receiver, and Jalen Hurts once again depended on him in the opener. Brown recorded the second highest First Read Target Share and second highest Air Yards Share across the NFL per Fantasy Points analyst Ryan Heath.

He had an extremely tough matchup against New England in week one, but Brown now faces a Vikings secondary that lost corners Patrick Peterson and Duke Shelley over the off-season. This Vikings squad last season also allowed the third most passing yards and second most explosive receptions allowed (per PFF). Look for Brown to torch Minnesota here and score the first touchdown.

For Brown First Touchdown to have a positive expected value, he must score the first touchdown about 11 percent of the time.

For Brown First Eagles Touchdown to have a positive expected value, he must score their first touchdown about 18 percent of the time.

DeVonta Smith First Touchdown (+1000 FD) & First Eagles Touchdown (+650 BMGM)

During week one, Smith ranked fifth across the NFL in First Read Target Share. It’s clear that Hurts is always looking for either AJ Brown or DeVonta Smith, which makes complete sense given their talent. As discussed above, this Vikings secondary is mighty vulnerable to elite receivers. It should be a massive game for both Brown and Smith.

For Smith First Touchdown to own a positive expected value, he has to score the first touchdown about 9 percent of the time.

For Smith First Eagles Touchdown to own a positive expected value, he has to score their first touchdown about 13 percent of the time.

Justin Jefferson First Vikings Touchdown (+320)

Jefferson led all wide receivers last season in red zone targets, inside the ten-yard-line targets, and PFF’s expected touchdowns. There is no doubt that Jefferson is the best receiver in the NFL, and he once again dominated in week one by posting 150 yards on 9 receptions. Like Brown, Jefferson also paced the Vikings in First Read Target Share and Air Yards Share (per Ryan Heath).

Although Philadelphia’s defense is rock-solid, they were somewhat flimsy guarding deep shots versus the Patriots. It’s clear that the free agency departure of safety CJ Gardner-Johnson hurt their back-end coverage. If Mac Jones and average receivers were shredding them, what would Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson accomplish?

For Jefferson First Vikings Touchdown to have a positive expected value, he must score their first touchdown about 23 percent of the time.

Best NFL Betting Promo Codes