New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview (12/6/21): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview (12/6/21)

The bona fide battle of the AFC East throws down this Monday in the Paris of Upstate New York as the Buffalo Bills battle the New England Patriots in a primetime matchup on ESPN. In a game that could very well be a preview of the AFC championship game, we’ll get a glimpse into how these two defensive minded organizations matchup with each other and how Mac Jones stacks up against the best pass stopping unit he’s faced all season. The Patriots enter this one winners of 6 straight, while the Bills come in off a Thanksgiving day beat-down of the Saints. Featuring two of the best coaches in the NFL, this one is bound to be a chess matchup with trickery and deception defining schemes on both sides of the ball. The Patriots lead the all time series 76-45-1, though the Bills have won the last 2 meetings.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Betting Odds

Betting Trends

Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall
Patriots are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games on turf
Patriots are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games after scoring more than 30 points
Bills are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall
Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games on turf
Bills are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game

The Pick

Like the Browns and Ravens last week, the Bills and Patriots play a very similar brand of football. Both teams have secondaries that give good quarterbacks trouble and average quarterbacks nightmares. They rank one and two in the NFL in forced interceptions and point differential behind offenses that are capable of putting up big numbers. I do think the Tre’Davious White injury on the Buffalo side is a bigger deal than people are making it out to be, but ultimately I don’t think it’ll be the difference.

Though the Patriots are on a tear right now — covering every road game on the season — I believe it all comes to an end on Monday night. This Buffalo team is by far and away the best team the Patriots have faced during their streak of success, and Sean McDermott and this Buffalo coaching staff has a level of experience against the Patriots team that the coaches of the last few weeks did not. Think about it — with the level of defensive talent on the field, one of these teams is likely going to be held under 20 points. I think it’s more likely Mac Jones and Kendrick Bourne struggle to connect than Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs.

My Prediction: Bills win 20-16, Bills cover (-3) and the under hits (u43)

TV Schedule

Date: Monday, December, 6
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium — Orchard Park, NY
TV Coverage: ESPN

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Live Stream

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Injuries

New England Patriots: CB Johnathan Jones (Ankle/Shoulder) O, RB James White (Hip) O, LB Jamie Collins Sr (Ankle) O, DE Henry Anderson (Pectoral) O, LB Josh Uche (Ankle) O
Buffalo Bills: CB Tre’Davious White (ACL) O, G Jon Feliciano (Calf) O, DT Justin Zimmer (Knee) O

New England Patriots Analysis

Are the Patriots the best team in the AFC right now? They’ve won six straight and aren’t just beating teams, but blowing them out. Since week 6 they’re winning by an average margin of 24.6 points per game with wins of 38, 25, and 23 in their last three games, respectively. Mac Jones is tied with 5 quarterbacks for the sixth fewest interceptions in the league, while their defense has forced more interceptions than any team in the NFL. Despite having little-to-no firepower at the WR position, they rank sixth in scoring offense and second in 4th quarter points per game.

Though this offense often gets dismissed as a dink-and-dunk operation reliant on 13 play drives to keep them afloat, they actually rank in the top half of the league in yards per play at 5.7 yards. After Cam Newton’s rough outing against the Dolphins last week, it’s reasonable to wonder if the Patriots’ offensive struggles last year were a symptom of Cam as much as Belichick. Either way, we’ll know a lot more about this offensive unit after Monday night. 

Defensively, no team shuts opponents down in the fourth quarter like the Patriots. They haven’t allowed a single 4th quarter point in their last three games — the only team in the NFL to do so — and are only allowing 2.9 points per 4th quarter on the season. They are sixth in the NFL in third down conversion percentage and fourth in opposing completion percentage. 

New England Patriots Depth Chart

QB: Mac Jones
RB1: Damien Harris
RB2: Rhamondre Stevenson
RB3: Brandon Bolden
WR1: Jakobi Meyers
WR2: Kendrick Bourne
WR3: Nelson Agholor
TE1: Hunter Henry

Buffalo Bills Analysis

If this Bills team were a movie producer, they’d be Adam Sandler — great on their good nights, horrible on their bad nights, and good more often than bad. Just in the month of November we’ve seen them lose to the Jags, get trounced by the Colts at home, beat the Jets by 4 touchdowns, and pummel the Saints in New Orleans on Thanksgiving. What version of this Bills team we’ll see in December and January remains to be seen, but what we do know is that they have a clear identity centered around their defense.

No team allows fewer yards per game than the Buffalo Bills and it’s not particularly close. Allowing only 275 yards per game, they have a 15 yard gap on number 2 (Carolina) and a 40 yard gap on number 3 (Cleveland). They are the only team to rank in the top 6 in both rushing and passing defense, and have a turnover differential of +9 on the season. Their pass defense has been particularly exceptional, forcing the lowest average completion percentage, fewest yards per attempt, fewest passing touchdowns, and lowest average passer rating.

One of their best corners, Tre’Davious White, tore his ACL against the Saints on Thanksgiving, and will be out for the remainder of the season. How his absence impacts this secondary on Monday may be a great indicator of whether or not this team is set up for a deep playoff run. Offensively, Buffalo has the seventh best passing offense in YPG and the 11th best rushing offense. Josh Allen currently ranks third in the NFL for rushing yards by a quarterback, behind only Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts.

Buffalo Bills Depth Chart

QB: Josh Allen
RB1: Matt Breida
RB2: Devin Singletary
RB3: Taiwan Jones
WR1: Emmanuel Sanders
WR2: Cole Beasley
WR3: Stefon Diggs
TE1: Dawson Knox

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Daily Fantasy Picks

Bills WR Gabriel Davis appears to have established a connection with Josh Allen going back to week 8 and the fantasy markets haven’t caught up. In the last 3 games he’s averaged just shy of 60 yards on 2.33 catches a game. Expect New England to scheme heavily for Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, leaving some opportunities open for Davis to make plays. The WR is currently listed at $3,300 on DraftKings.