New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks Matchup Preview (10/25/21): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)

New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks Matchup Preview (10/25/21)

The 2021 season hasn’t gone according to plan for either of these teams, and every game from here on out carries more weight as they look to carve out a Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Seahawks sit in the basement of the NFC West at just 2-4 and have to start winning some games if they want to make the playoffs this season. The Saints, meanwhile, are in solid shape at 3-2 coming out of their bye week. These two teams have delivered some memorable games in recent seasons, and while it will be Jameis Winston and Geno Smith instead of Drew Brees and Russell Wilson, this should still be a very entertaining game.

New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks Betting Odds

The Trends

• Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a losing record
• Saints are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games as a road favorite
• Seahawks are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog
• Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after an ATS win
• Under is 5-0 in the Saints’ last 5 games after scoring 30+ points in their previous game
• Under is 5-1 in the Seahawks’ last 6 games against a team with a winning record
• The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams

The Pick

This is a great spot to back the Seahawks again, this time as a home underdog following their win ATS on the road in Pittsburgh. Geno Smith is getting a lot of hate from sportsbooks, but Jameis Winston hasn’t proven that he is all that much better of a quarterback. Winston is just 8-17-1 in his career as a favorite, and he’s just 0-2 ATS on Monday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Seahawks showed last week that they could rely on their run game and defense to remain competitive while Russell Wilson is out. New Orleans is 10-4 ATS following their bye week in the Sean Payton era, and I still trust Payton’s team to gut out the road win, but the Seahawks are laying too many points in this matchup.

My predictions: Saints win 24-20, Seahawks cover, over 43 points

TV Schedule

Date: Monday, October 25th
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Location: Lumen Field – Seattle, WA
TV Coverage: ESPN

New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks Live Stream

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Injuries

New Orleans Saints: OT Terron Armstead (elbow) Q, C Erik McCoy (calf) Q, QB/TE Taysom Hill (concussion) Q, WR Deonte Harris (hamstring) Q, LB Kwon Alexander (elbow) IR, DE Marcus Davenport (shoulder) IR, K Wil Lutz (abdomen) IR, WR Tre’Quan Smith (hamstring) IR, RB Tony Jones Jr. (ankle) IR, WR Michael Thomas (ankle) PUP
Seattle Seahawks: RB Alex Collins (hip) Q, OT Cedric Ogbuehi (biceps) Q, OG Damien Lewis (shoulder) Q, DE Darrell Taylor (shoulder) Q, RB Chris Carson (neck) IR, QB Russell Wilson (finger) IR, RB Rashaad Penny (calf) IR, WR D’Wayne Eskridge (concussion) IR

New Orleans Saints Analysis

Jameis Winston is coming off one of his best games of the season in which he threw for four touchdowns against Washington, but it’s been an up-and-down rollercoaster for him this year. To be fair to Winston, he hasn’t exactly had the benefit of elite skill position talent outside of Alvin Kamara, particularly with Michael Thomas yet to take a single snap this season. Thomas is reportedly close to a return, but it’s unlikely we see him this week. Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris have proven capable of making some big plays downfield, but Alvin Kamara has had a bit of a down season but is still on pace for over 1,600 yards from scrimmage for the second straight year.

New Orleans remains one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, ranking fifth in the NFL in run blocking per Football Outsiders. However, the Saints have allowed the seventh-highest adjusted sack rate, and Jamal Adams could look to take advantage of that weakness. Terron Armstead has not played since Week 3 and is currently questionable for Week 3. The three-time Pro Bowl offensive tackle is a crucial piece of the offense, and the Saints will be hoping to have him back following the bye week. Armstead, when healthy, forms one of the best offensive tackle tandems in the NFL with Ryan Ramczyk.

Defensively, the Saints have struggled to generate a consistent pass rush as they rank as the fourth-worst defense in the NFL in adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders. Trey Hendrickson left for the Bengals in free agency after a career year. In contrast, Marcus Davenport’s continued absence has left Cameron Jordan the only reliable threat to get after the quarterback. The defense has still held up well in terms of pass coverage, especially with Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams, two of the best at their respective positions in the NFL. Still, a more consistent pass rush would help tremendously. Rookies Pete Werner and Paulson Adebo have emerged as significant contributors to this defense that still ranks third in the NFL in points per game allowed and third in DVOA.

New Orleans Saints Depth Chart

QB: Jameis Winston
RB1: Alvin Kamara
RB2: Dwayne Washington
WR1: Michael Thomas
WR2: Marquez Callaway
WR3: Deonte Harris
TE1: Adam Trautman
TE2: Juwan Johnson

Seattle Seahawks Analysis

NFL pundits ultimately gave up on Geno Smith heading into Week 6, but he has outperformed expectations against formidable defenses in the Steelers and Rams for two straight weeks. Smith has completed 67.3% of his passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns to one interception over those games. Those aren’t stellar numbers, but it’s pretty equivalent to what Winston has delivered for the Saints this season. Smith was under fire on Sunday as the Steelers sacked him five times and hit him eight times, and the Seattle offensive line is having another tough year as it ranks as the fourth-worst in the NFL with a 9.2% adjusted sack rate allowed according to Football Outsiders.

While the offensive line has struggled, Smith benefits from throwing to two stellar wide receivers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Smith and Lockett don’t have nearly the mind meld that Russell Wilson and Lockett share, but he should be more productive moving forward after finishing with just two catches for 35 yards. DK Metcalf is the big-bodied touchdown threat who should see a lot of Marshon Lattimore in this game. The Seahawks will be hoping to find a consistent run game to aid Smith, but they face a tough run defense in the Saints without a clear answer as to who the starter will be. Chris Carson landed on Injured Reserve, Alex Collins is nursing an injury of his own, and Rashaad Penny is doing everything in his power to be available to the team this week.

Over the offseason, there was a lot of hype surrounding an expectedly significant defensive improvement for Seattle, but it has just been more of the same. The run defense has been shockingly bad given the team has Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, and Jamal Adams manning the front seven – they have allowed 140.8 rushing yards per game, the third-most in the NFL. Seattle also has little in the way of a consistent pass rush, and its secondary often looks overwhelmed. With a mediocre secondary and limited pass rush, it’s no wonder the Seahawks rank 24th in the NFL in pass defense DVOA per Football Outsiders.

Seattle Seahawks Depth Chart

QB: Geno Smith
RB1: Alex Collins
RB2: Rashaad Penny
WR1: DK Metcalf
WR2: Tyler Lockett
WR3: Freddie Swain
TE1: Gerald Everett
TE2: Will Dissly

New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks Daily Fantasy Picks

This isn’t going to be the barnburner we’ve started to expect from primetime NFL games, but there can still be significant fantasy value. It’s hard to imagine not making Alvin Kamara my showdown MVP/captain as the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs in the NFL. Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris are the New Orleans wide receivers I’d be looking for upside in this game. If you’re looking for a pivot in that spot, Tyler Lockett is a viable target as the Saints rank 6th in defensive DVOA against WR1s but just 24th against other wide receivers per Football Outsiders. That also makes Freddie Swain an intriguing deep flier as he continues to outpace all non-Metcalf and Lockett receivers in snaps significantly. The Saints rank 2nd in the NFL in DVOA vs. TEs, so I’m not excited about either Gerald Everett or Will Dissly, although Dissly did secure Smith’s lone touchdown pass on Sunday. If Alex Collins plays, he’ll be a solid volume-based play with substantial touchdown equity in the offense.