After losing back-to-back games without their star quarterback, the Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) are expecting Jalen Hurts to return when they host the New York Giants (9-6-1) in the final week of the 2022-23 regular season.
Two weeks ago, the Eagles needed just one win in their final three games to clinch the NFC East division title, the top seed in the conference, and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. But with backup Gardner Minshew under center, they lost to the Cowboys on Christmas Eve and to the Saints on New Year’s Day, squandering an opportunity to rest their starters in the final game.
Ironically, despite being 3.5 games back in the standings, the Giants are in position to rest their starters, as they are locked in to the sixth seed in the NFC playoffs regardless of the outcomes in week 18.
Coach Brian Daboll said this week that they will “do what’s best for the team.” Reading between the lines, and interpreting the odds on this game, it seems the Giants will be resting many of their starters this week.
Let’s take a look at the odds, injuries and depth charts for this Giants vs. Eagles matchup and see my picks and predictions for the game.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Odds
The Eagles are heavy favorites in this game with a spread of -14. Even with Hurts returning, that is a massive line for a team dealing with injuries to multiple key players and facing a division opponent and playoff team. That line is screaming that Vegas expects the Giants to rest their starters.
The public is jumping on the underdog in this game, with roughly 75% of the money on the Giants. Perhaps they are concerned about Hurts’ health or potential rustiness, or maybe they think the Eagles’ current two-game losing streak was not just about Hurts being out. They also could be betting that the Giants will not rest as many starters as expected, or they’re showing confidence in the Giants’ depth.
The over/under for this matchup opened at 40.5 and has jumped to 43, with approximately 70% of the handle on the over. That line movement could be a result of the action on the over, or it could be a result of reports that Hurts is trending towards starting.
The implied outcome of these odds is the Eagles winning 28.25-14.25.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Prediction
The Eagles dominated the Giants in week 14, scoring a season high in a 48-22 victory at the Meadowlands. Now they face a Giants team with many key starters not expected to play, and they do so at home with a lot more at stake. That should be a recipe for another big Eagles victory, but that’s not necessarily a reason to lay the points.
A spread of -14 is a lot to cover – tied for the largest on the week 18 slate, and one of the largest spreads of the season. This game is a bit unpredictable, as the Eagles could also choose to start resting players late in the game if they have a comfortable lead. So while my official pick is that the Eagles will cover, I would not be placing any bets on the spread this week. The spread is too risky either way, and the Eagles’ moneyline odds offer no value.
I am interested in betting the over at 43. With Hurts back under center, the Eagles should be able to score plenty of points against this Giants defense once again.
The absence of the Eagles’ best offensive lineman in right tackle Lane Johnson does concern me, as they have struggled whenever Johnson has missed time. But with many of the Giants’ top defensive lineman expected to rest, that should not be a major issue in this game.
My Prediction: Eagles win 34-13, Eagles cover, over 43
- Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 5-1 in their last six games overall.
- Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with a winning record.
- Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss, and 0-4 ATS in their last four games in January.
- The Over is 6-1 in the Eagles’ last seven home games.
- The Over is 5-0 in the Eagles’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
- The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Philadelphia.
New York Giants Injuries: CB Adoree Jackson (Q – knee), OLB Azeez Ojulari (Q – ankle), DT Leonard Williams (Q – neck), G Shane Lemieux (O – toe), OL Josh Ezeudu (O – neck), DL Nick Williams (IR – biceps), WR Wan’Dale Robinson (IR – knee), CB Aaron Robinson (IR – knee), WR Sterling Shepard (IR – knee), WR Collin Johnson (IR – achilles), LB Darrian Beavers (IR – Knee, ACL)
Philadelphia Eagles Injuries: QB Jalen Hurts (Q – shoulder), DE Josh Sweat (Q – neck), CB Avonte Maddox (O – toe), RT Lane Johnson (O – abdomen), S C.J. Gardner-Johnson (IR – lacerated kidney), P Arryn Siposs (IR – ankle), DE Robert Quinn (IR – knee), DT Marlon Tuipulotu (IR – knee), DE Derek Barnett (IR – knee)
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles below.
Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts vs. Giants’ defense
It does not make a whole lot of sense to break down specific matchups in a game that expects to feature Eagles’ starters against Giants’ backups. Instead, let’s just focus on the performance of a few key players, most importantly the Eagles’ MVP candidate.
Heading into the playoffs, all eyes will be on Hurts and how he performs after spraining his throwing shoulder. Will the injury affect his mechanics, accuracy or velocity, all of which have shown marked improvements this season?
It will also be interesting to see if coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen call fewer designed quarterback runs to keep Hurts out of harm’s way. Perhaps even more important is whether they will call fewer run-pass options, taking the decision away from Hurts to put himself at risk. That would mean a fundamental shift in the Eagles’ offensive identity heading into the playoffs.
Eagles’ right tackle Jack Driscoll vs. Giants’ pass rush
Driscoll filled in for the injured Johnson last week and struggled against veteran power rusher Cam Jordan, who racked up three sacks in the game (although Driscoll was not to blame for all three).
Johnson suffered a torn tendon in his abdomen which requires surgery, but he has opted to postpone the surgery and play through the injury in the playoffs. It remains to be seen how effective he can be, and the possibility remains that the Eagles will need to rely on Driscoll in the playoffs.
They also have the option to move left tackle Jordan Mailata to the right side and play former first-round pick Andre Dillard at left tackle. Dillard has previously struggled when trying to transition to right tackle, which is why Driscoll was the next man up on that side, despite Dillard being the more talented player.
The Eagles might want to get a look at the Mailata/Dillard combination to see if that would be a better option for replacing Johnson in the playoffs, if necessary. Of course it would also make sense to give Driscoll as many reps as possible in case he needs to answer the call.
This will be an interesting situation to monitor in this game.