Alabama Vs. Mississippi State: Prediction, Best Bets, Odds (9/30/23)

Alabama vs. Mississippi State kicks off this Saturday at 9:00pm EST in Starkville as a home game for the Bulldogs. Alabama is currently a -14.5 favorite and -600 on the moneyline while the total is set at 46.5. Read on for more Alabama vs. Mississippi State best bets and predictions as Alabama looks to make quick work of the Bulldogs.

Alabama Vs. Mississippi State Prediction & Best Bet

Just when everyone thought it was over for the Tide, Saban once again reminded the nation that Alabama is here to stay. Granted it was the dominant performance that we are accustomed to with the Tide, but a win is a win, nonetheless.

As for the Bulldogs, it’s been a rough go for them to start the season as they are currently 2-2. Their two losses have come with their two most recent outings, getting steamrolled by LSU and losing a high scoring contest against the South Carolina Gamecocks. Defense has been optional, and they need to find answers in a flash if they want to avoid going under 0.500 with the Crimson Tide on deck.

Sadly for the Bulldogs, it will be tough sledding as their defense is as bad as it gets. They currently rank a lowly 114th in Def Success Rate and 133rd in Def Points per Opportunity. They generate no Havoc, ranking 83rd in that department as well. They do a modest job at limiting Explosiveness, yet their short game is obviously less to be desired.

Speaking of the Alabama offense, they have found recent success by going back to their roots of what made them so dominant in the first place. Accepting that their pass attack will not thrive with Jalen Milroe under center, the Tide had no issue with going back to their ground game in an effort to abuse the Ole Miss defense. Their Success Rates vastly differ as of writing with their ground attack ranking 46th while their pass game ranks a lowly 94th.

Even in a win, it’s apparent that this is one of the weaker offensive lines that Saban has had to work with in his tenure and they still struggle to generate a push. While they will have the advantage in this matchup, success won’t come at a consistent rate and that creates issues when trying to make progression down the field. That forces me to bypass their spread as it’s over the key number of -14 and will in turn tie their moneyline into a moneyline parlay. Memphis is currently a target to tie them with, combining a short line with the Tide’s juicy one.

Alabama Vs. Mississippi State Prediction & Best Bet: Alabama Moneyline Parlay Piece

Alabama Vs. Mississippi State Betting Odds

With Alabama’s offense slowly rounding back into form, oddsmakers believe that they are capable of getting a comfortable win by opening them as a -11.5 favorite. Bettors believe that Alabama’s chances are a lot better than that, taking them up to -14.5 as of writing. Passing through the key number of -14 and climbing up to as high as -15 in some shops.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 52.5. Bettors believe points will be scored at a slower pace, taking the under down to as low as 46.5. This comes as no surprise as the Tide’s defense is still dominant while their offense will feature a heavy dose of the run. Draining the clock to the benefit of the under.

Alabama Vs. Mississippi State Key Matchups

Can Jalen Milroe find any sort of success through the air?

Jalen Milroe Vs. Mississippi State Secondary

It hasn’t exactly been the production that Alabama is used to with their quarterback under center as Jalen Milroe started the season throwing for 674 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions. To make up for his lack of throwing prowess, Milroe possesses an elite running ability and has tacked on another 120 yards and two touchdowns with his feet.

What a play from Jalen Milroe!

Stepped into a big hit to make this touchdown throw; he bounced right back after initially going down on the play pic.twitter.com/RegAHLoGGd

— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) September 23, 2023

Should Alabama want to make it back as a serious contender, they will need Milroe to step it up in the passing department. This is as good an opportunity for him to do so as the Bulldogs secondary ranks a lowly 128th in Def Pass Success Rate and 126th in Def Pass PPA. Should Milroe continue to struggle with hitting his receivers in stride, then the future looks bleak when the Tide’s quality of opponent’s defense ramps up.

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