Get Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets first TD odds, picks, and analysis for the (9/11/23) Monday Night Football matchup.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets First TD Odds
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets First Touchdown Picks
The Bills take on the Jets in the first Monday night football game of the season. With odds set for First Touchdown markets, let’s look into where there may be some value in this Week 1 Divisional showdown.
Garrett Wilson First TD (+900 FD)
Wilson impressed last season as a rookie; he notched 1,107 yards and four touchdowns. Of the 60 wide receivers with at least 70 targets, he was second in missed tackles forced and 17th in yards after the catch per reception. Although Wilson only grabbed four touchdowns, he ranked 12th among all NFL wide receivers in red zone targets and 10th in inside the ten-yard-line targets. With Aaron Rodgers running the show, Wilson finally has a hyper-accurate quarterback to get him the ball.
Wilson’s ability to create space, force missed tackles, and catch contested passes in traffic all indicate a player that can rack up touchdowns.
For Wilson to hold a positive expected value, he must score the first touchdown around 9 percent of the time.
Garrett Wilson First Jets TD (+500 BMGM)
I am doubling down on Garrett Wilson finding the end zone first for New York. Aaron Rodgers is a quarterback that throws to people he trusts, and the chemistry these two have displayed so far is incredible. In addition to Rodgers trusting Wilson, he’s also by far the best weapon on the field. Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman will struggle to be effective against Buffalo’s secondary, and New York’s offensive line may not be able to generate push in a goal line setting versus Buffalo’s defensive line. It remains to be seen whether an aging Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall coming back from injury can overcome the projected line disadvantage. One thing is for sure: Wilson will be a stud on Monday night.
For Wilson to hold a positive expected value, he must score New York’s first touchdown around 16 percent of the time – that’s a steal!
Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD (+375 BMGM)
Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed form the best cornerback duo in the NFL, while Jordan Whitehead lurks at safety. It will be difficult for these Bills receivers to create separation, especially with Josh Allen not having much time due to this elite Jets defensive line. Allen will need a big target that’s not facing these corners – enter rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid. The 25th pick in the draft has looked special this off-season because of his fluidity, reliable hands, and route running. It’s clear that the coaches want to emphasize Kincaid, and Josh Allen has worked to build chemistry with him this off-season. It’s unknown how many snaps Kincaid will see in his first NFL game, but I’m expecting the Bills to throw him into the fire immediately.
For Kincaid to hold a positive expected value, he must score a touchdown around 21 percent of the time.