Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens Game 4 Preview, Picks & Odds for Tuesday, May 12, 2026

By Kody Malstrom | May 11, 2026, 7:12pm

From the opening puck drop, the Montreal Canadiens had no issue with relentlessly attacking Buffalo’s net, beating the Sabres 6-2 in game three. Their final mark in Expected Goals solidified their stunning performance, generating 5.36 xGF to the Sabres 3.30.

With momentum on their side, expect the Canadiens to continue to thrive, exploiting a Sabres back line who grades out poorly in most defensive metrics. With the Canadiens back line also struggling to defend their net, expect game four to turn into a high scoring affair, clearing the over on the total in the process.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens Betting Analysis

Since the start of the regular season, the Montreal Canadiens front line have been able to play at a very high level, ranking in the top-10 in Expected Goals For in All Situations. The production they receive from their top two lines has played a major role in their resurgence this season with three players averaging more than 0.35 Expected Goals per game.

While their drop off in production to their bottom lines is certainly alarming, the Buffalo Sabres lack of coverage helps them mask it, fielding a back line who resides near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Even with Alex Lyon in their net, the minimal support he receives from his back line makes him constantly scramble across the crease, lowering his chances of making the save.

On the other side of the ice, the Canadiens inability to stay in front of the puck has also been a thorn in their side this season, grading out equally as poor as the Sabres in Expected Goals Against. Their underwhelming coverage brings in a higher amount of variance into their contests, making it easier for their opponents to match their output.

Especially with the Sabres front line playing at a competitive level, clawing their way back into the top-15 in Expected Goals For in All Situations after a slow start to the playoffs. Tage Thompson has helped spark their turnaround on offense this season, entering the postseason averaging 0.42 Expected Goals and 3.36 Shots on Goal per game.

With both front lines consistently pressuring each other’s net, expect game four to feature a heavy volume of high quality scoring opportunities, shading value towards the over on the full game total. Even with both goalies holding their ground throughout the playoffs, negative regression looms large when forced to make quick cuts, leaving them vulnerable to getting beat for the full duration of the contest.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens Best Bet, Pick & Prediction

Best Bet: Over 6.5 (+123)
Score Prediction: Canadiens 4, Sabres 3

Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens Game Odds

Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens Game Information

Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Network: ESPN
Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Venue: Bell Centre – 6.3 goals per game; 23-20-2 O/U
Series Score: Canadiens 2-1

Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens Betting Resources

Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens Key Players

Buffalo Sabres

Tage Thompson – Last Game: (1 Goal, 1 Assist, 3 Shots on Goal)
Jason Zucker – Last Game: (0 Goals, 0 Assists, 0 Shots on Goal)
Alex Lyon – Last Game: (5 Goals Against, 31 Saves)

Montreal Canadiens

Cole Caufield – Last Game: (1 Goal, 1 Assist, 3 Shots on Goal)
Nick Suzuki – Last Game: (0 Goals, 1 Assist, 4 Shots on Goal)
Jakub Dobes – Last Game: (2 Goals Against, 26 Saves)

Photo Credit: AP/Jeffrey T. Barnes

Kody Malstrom

Kody is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with eight years of experience in the industry. He covers a wide range of sports, including NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, and UFC. What started as a side gig has turned into a full time job, spending a majority of his time staring at odds screens and market movement. When away from the computer, Kody enjoys spending his time outdoors relaxing at the beach or golfing with friends.