Colorado Vs. TCU: Prediction, Odds, & Best Bet (9/2/23)

Colorado vs. TCU kicks off this Saturday at 12:00pm EST in Fort Worth as a home game for the Horned Frogs. TCU is currently a -20 favorite and -1100 on the moneyline. The total for the game is set at 63.5. Read on for more Colorado vs. TCU best bets and predictions as the Buffaloes should have no issue with putting points up on the board.

Colorado Vs. TCU Prediction & Best Bet

It’s a new age in Colorado as Deion Sanders cleaned house upon his arrival. Because of that, it is near impossible to handicap the Buffaloes as it is all speculation at best on how fast his talent can put it all together. Per markets, it’s not going to come so easy as their regular season win total is set at o/u 3.5 and they open the season as a +20.5 underdog to TCU.

While figuring out how Colorado will look is near impossible, we can handicap their opponent as TCU is giving us plenty to work with. While it is nothing short of impressive for what they did last year by going undefeated and making it to the National Championship, it is worth noting that they skated by as one of the luckiest units in football. 

Their metrics do not back up their success, especially on the defensive end, as they ranked 63rd in Def Success Rate, 103rd in Def Explosiveness, 101st in Def Finishing Drives, and 83rd in Def Havoc.

An oddity for DC Sonny Dykes who built his success off of successful defenses yet is tied to his undersized personnel that struggled with plugging gaps in his 3-3-5 scheme. Colorado does not boast elite size by any measures to abuse the interior, but they are chalk full of speed and talent at their skill positions and are more than capable of burning this defense for the big gain.

Colorado Vs. TCU Odds

Even with the abundance of young talent on both sides of the ball, oddsmakers are tempering their expectations of Deion and company to shock the nation by opening them as a +21 underdog. That number has since steadily been bet down, down to as low as +20 as of writing. People have been buying the Colorado upside all summer long as they are the most bet ticket to win the Pac 12 and National Championship.

As previously mentioned, points are expected to be scored at a lightning-fast pace as oddsmakers opened the total at 59.5. Bettors are in the same belief, backing the over up to as high as 63.5. TCU’s defense gives the mystery that is the Colorado offense a good a chance as ever to start off hot, as well as TCU’s explosive offense being able to pick apart the young and undersized Buffalo defense.

Colorado Vs. TCU Key Matchups

Can Shedeur Sanders use his speed to make the TCU defense uncomfortable? How does TCU’s offense look under Chandler Morris?

Like Father Like Son

While not the same position, Shedeur Sanders oozes super star potential with an elite blend of size and athleticism. Mirroring shades of Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts, Shedeur Sanders can inflict damage with his running ability and force opposing second levels to spy on him in an effort to contain his scrambling.

That spells disaster for a TCU defense that already struggled against the run. TCU ranked 97th in Def Rush Success Rate, routinely getting beat by opposing playmakers as they already run thin at the defensive line. Should their linebackers struggle to make open field tackles then Sanders can take command and move their offense by himself. This also opens up the pass game by anchoring down linebackers and exposing gaps outside the hashes.

Chandler Morris Redemption

TCU went into last season with a quarterback battle that resulted in Max Duggan coming out on top over Chandler Morris. Safe to say they made the right choice as he led them to an undefeated season and National Championship appearance.

With Duggan gone, Morris now comes back into the fold for a second attempt at redemption. That doesn’t exactly give me confidence that they can maintain their passing success from last year as Morris lacks the running ability that Duggan had. Duggan’s scrambles forced defenses to creep up and he would then beat them over the top. Star wide receiver Quentin Johnston is also gone, leaving the TCU receiving room void of his big body presence down the field.

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