The surging Miami Dolphins travel to face the Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon (10/1/23). Get Dolphins vs. Bills odds, predictions, and picks; our best bet for this monumental clash is Dolphins over 25.5 points.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction & Best Bet
Miami Dolphins Team Total
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
NFL • 2023-24 Week 4
10/01 5:00 PM
Bet with Braxton
Published on Sep 28, 2023 7:24 PM
Buffalo’s defense is a Super Bowl caliber unit with all of the necessary pieces. Tre’Davious White remains one of the stickiest cornerbacks in the league, while partners Taron Johnson and Christian Benford hold their own. Buffalo also owns an elite safety duo that can deter explosive plays in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poywer. As a result, the Bills currently place second in opponent dropback Expected Points Added per Play and are allowing a paltry 4.9 net yards gained per pass attempt.
Meanwhile, the Bills own the highest sack percentage despite blitzing at the lowest frequency per Brad Congelio. Pressure is coming from both the interior and edge, which allows Buffalo to rush four and sit back in coverage. The Bills unsurprisingly only allow 22.6 percent of opponent offensive drives to end in a score, good for third best in the NFL.
Buffalo’s defense is definitely elite…but Miami’s offense has a chance to be truly historic.
Per rbsdm.com, the Dolphins lead the NFL in Expected Points Added per Play, and it’s not even close. The gap between them and second place is wider than the gap between second and nineteenth. Miami also leads the NFL in just about every other metric: Success Rate, percentage of drives ending in an offensive score, first downs, points, yards, etc.
Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane form the fastest trio across the league, and head coach Mike McDaniel is pioneering football at this very moment through creative pre-snap motion. Defenses must rapidly adjust on the fly because of their motion frequency, but Miami’s speed and trickery make it extremely difficult for defenders to both diagnose and track down their assignment before the train leaves the station.
In 2017, NFL offenses put a man in motion at the snap 4% of the time. Today, it’s 20%.
But the 2023 Dolphins? 59% — the most by anyone since we began tracking in 2017 by a long shot.
The Dolphins are averaging 0.16 EPA per play without motion at the snap and 0.50 (!) with it.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 26, 2023
The Dolphins are creating utter chaos on the field, and Tua Tagovailoa is taking advantage of the madness. He leads the NFL in Big Time Throw to Turnover Worthy Play ratio and maintains the quickest time to throw at a lightning speed of 2.24 seconds despite ranking fourth in average depth of target (per PFF). In other words, Tagovailoa is rapidly throwing the ball downfield into tight windows. This speed will help neutralize Buffalo’s pass rush, as the ball will be out before they can get to Tagovailoa.
Meanwhile, running back Raheem Mostert’s career 5.42 yards per carry is the largest number in the Super Bowl Era (min. 500 attempts). Of the 37 running backs with at least 25 attempts, Mostert currently ranks seventh in missed tackles forced, ninth in yards after contact per attempt, and fifth in breakaway percentage per PFF. His success on the ground has provided balance to the offense and forced teams to slide up to defend the run, thus creating space in the passing game.
Overall, Buffalo assuredly fields an excellent defense, but Miami’s offense is on a level the NFL has never seen before. Taking Miami to score 26 points is the best bet here.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction & Best Bet: Dolphins Over 25.5 Points (-118 FD)
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds
MIA @ BUF
Oct. 01, 5:00 PM
Odds updated October 1st, 2023, at 8:04 pm
Miami bettors can find the Dolphins at +3, but there are also -2.5 lines on other sportsbooks for Bills backers. This game should be extremely tight, so that half a point could make a massive difference. The 54 over under is currently the largest total of Week Four.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Key Injuries
After missing last week with a concussion, star receiver Jaylen Waddle is fully healthy and ready to go. Not that it mattered for Miami, as they dropped 70 points on Denver.
(Editor will insert injury tile)
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Key Matchups
Which team will win these key matchups?
Miami Dolphins Offensive Line vs. Buffalo Pass Rush
Tagovailoa’s rapid release means he doesn’t necessarily need an abundance of time. The Alabama product would be even deadlier with more time though, as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle cannot be contained forever. Their offensive line has been solid, but Buffalo’s pass rush is the best they have seen so far. If the Dolphins can stop the Bills from generating consistent pressure, then it’s difficult to envision Miami’s offense stalling.
This concern could be said about every team, but it applies to Miami especially. Jaylen Waddle missed last week with a concussion, and Tagovailoa has a scary injury history dating back to his Alabama days. If the Dolphins are going to rack up points, then it’s imperative that the stars remain healthy for the entire game. Otherwise, this Buffalo defense’s cover probability spikes massively.