Louisville vs. Indiana kicks off this Saturday at 12:00pm EST in Indianapolis as a neutral site game for both units. Louisville is currently a -10 favorite with -365 odds on the moneyline while the total is set at 52.5. Read on for more Louisville vs. Indiana best bets and predictions as the Cardinals should put this one away early and cover the spread.
Louisville Vs. Indiana Prediction & Best Bet
It was a rocky start for the Louisville Cardinals as one of the more popular preseason win total overs as they fell flat on their face to start their season against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Since halftime, the Cardinals have been on a tear as their new look offense slowly rounds into form. While their second game may have been against Murray State, it served as the perfect tune up game as the Cardinals tried to work out the kinks in their passing game.
While the pass attack has still struggled at times as Plummer deals with turnover issues, their ground game has carried the rest of the offense on their backs as the number one team in the nation in Off Rush Success Rate. They are also second in the nation in Rush PPA and 25th in Rush Explosiveness.
This spells immediate danger for the Indiana Hoosiers as they mightily struggle at containing the ground game. While they excel at limiting the big gain, the Hoosiers struggle at limiting consistency in the backfield by ranking 80th in Def Rush Success Rate. With an elite talent like Jawhar Jordan in the backfield, the Cardinals should have no issue with cutting the distance to gain in half with each rushing attempt he gets.
Friendlier field position is exactly what the Cardinals need should they want to have an easier time with deploying their pass attack. Jack Plummer has sputtered out the gate, throwing for three interceptions to his four touchdowns. He has to limit the turnovers as it can be back breaking to a team’s momentum when they drastically change the field position.
Lucky for Plummer, the Hoosiers also have a hard time at limiting Pass Success. Like their rush defense, their pass defense also suffers from a low Success Rate while excelling at limiting Explosiveness. This plays into Plummer’s favor as they can build a game script involving him making the quick easy read rather than letting it air out in high danger situations. This keeps drives alive while also consistently moving the ball down the field.
Louisville Vs. Indiana Prediction & Best Bet: Louisville -10
Louisville Vs. Indiana Betting Odds
This is Indiana’s first true test against a team closer to their level, only playing the likes of Ohio State and Indiana State so far this season. The harsh reality is that oddsmakers still peg them as a sizable underdog, opening the Hoosiers as a +10.5 underdog to the Cardinals. Bettors have backed them at the football number, taking Indiana down to +9.5. That number has since ticked back up to a flat +10, failing to nudge in either direction as of writing.
As for the total, points were expected to be scored at a lightning quick pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 58.5. Bettors were adamantly in disagreement, taking the total down to as low as 52.5. A drastic decrease in the total yet justified as the Cardinals game plan will revolve around draining the clock with their ground game while the Hoosiers offense will struggle to move the ball down the field.
Louisville Vs. Indiana Key Matchups
Can Louisville contain new Indiana starting quarterback Tayven Jackson?
Tayven Jackson Vs. Louisville Secondary
It took two games into the season, but Tayven Jackson finally won the starting job after splitting duties with fellow quarterback Brendan Sorsby.
TAYVEN JACKSON IS THE GUY
— WBR (@W_B_Rick) September 8, 2023
While it’s rewarding to see Tayven earn the job as it builds confidence as their quarterback for the future, he will find himself having a hard time finding success through the air. Louisville’s secondary has been dialed in to start the year, ranking first in Def Pass Success Rate and sixth in Def Pass PPA.
They have struggled to contain Explosiveness yet that may not be an issue as Indiana nearly matches them at an equally worse rate in that department. Tayven will not suddenly elevate their weak receiving core as they struggle to create separation against the second level of Louisville’s defense.