LSU Vs. Florida State: Prediction, Odds, & Best Bet (9/3/23)

LSU and Florida State kick off their season this Sunday at 7:30pm EST in a marquee matchup between each other in Orlando, FL. LSU is currently a -2.5 favorite with -140 odds on the moneyline while. The total, meanwhile, is set at 56.5. Read on for more LSU vs. Florida State best bets and predictions as LSU looks to start off their championship run with a win.

LSU Vs. Florida State Prediction & Best Bet

The stakes are high for Sunday’s main event as both LSU and Florida State come into the season with championship aspirations. While a loss in week one will not eliminate them from the playoffs, it will make their path much harder by forcing them to win out the rest of the season.

After last year’s wild ending with Florida State winning in the final seconds, revenge is on the Tigers mind to open their season. They come in with a championship roster on both ends of the football with quarterback Jayden Daniels manning the helm. 

Daniels comes in as a sleeper Heisman pick as his offense is loaded with weapons. He did a phenomenal job at limiting turnovers in his 2022 campaign and can now take a step forward by being a more aggressive downfield passer. The connection between him and his number one receiver Malik Nabers will be one of the most lethal in the nation.

Better yet for the Tigers, they may not even have to rely on their pass attack to get the job done as they have a massive advantage in the ground game. While Florida State is known for their elite defense and continuity coming into this year, they mightily struggled with defending the run. They ranked 93rd in Def Rush Success Rate and 90th in Def Rush PPA.

That spells doom for the Seminoles defense as they have to deal with a dual threat quarterback in Daniels as well as the emerging Josh Williams. Should LSU find success out the gate on the ground, then that forces the Seminoles linebackers to anchor in the middle and open up gaps for the Tigers to exploit in the passing game.

LSU Vs. Florida State Odds

With LSU having advantages on both sides of the football, oddsmakers lean towards the Tigers to pull out the win by opening them as a -2.5 favorite. Bettors have been in agreement, taking LSU up to the key number of -3 in some shops. As for the defensive end, all eyes are on Harold Perkins Jr as he comes in as one of the best players in the nation. At linebacker, it’s vital for Perkins to limit FSU’s quarterback Jordan Travis dual threat ability by crashing the gaps and generating backfield pressure.

Speaking of defense, points are expected to be scored at a quick pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 56.5. Bettors have yet to take a firm stand on either side of the number, keeping the total the same as the opener. Sitting above the key number of 55, an under is intriguing as this game should feature a heavy dose of the run for both units.

LSU Vs. Florida State Key Matchups

Can LSU limit the FSU ground game? How big is LSU’s coaching advantage?

Trey Benson vs LSU Rush Defense

Like FSU’s defense, the Tigers also struggle at limiting rushing production. While not at a lackluster level like the Seminoles, but still at a shockingly low Success Rate for an elite program.

Florida State’s Trey Benson is a tackle breaking machine with the burst to eliminate tackle angles. His contact balance is ridiculous.

The Oregon transfer was a breakout star last year and will be a top RB prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft this year. pic.twitter.com/KG62OwnMe5

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) August 21, 2023

Trey Benson returns to man the backfield for the Seminoles after a productive 2022 campaign. He finished last year rushing for 990 yards and nine touchdowns on 154 carries. He excelled at open field playmaking, yet his production will need to be called on when they get into the red zone. An area the Seminoles mightily struggled to convert in as defenses tighten up and can creep more into stacking the box.

Brian Kelly vs Mike Norvell

Speaking of red zone inefficiencies, this game features a massive coaching advantage for the Tigers as FSU’s Mike Norvell is one of the worst critical situation coaches in the nation. That was made apparent last year when Florida State finished as one of the worst fourth down converting units in the nation per TeamRankings as well as having a lackluster Off Finishing Drives rate.

Norvell has a tendency to bypass the obvious play call and tries to get too cute with his fourth down play calls. When the situation called for something as simple as a QB sneak, Norvell would try to trick the defense to his own demise. This won’t fly against an experienced LSU unit with Brian Kelly excelling at situational awareness.

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