Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Player Props & Picks (9/17/23)
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Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Atlanta as a home game for the Falcons. The Packers are currently a +1.5 underdog and +110 on the moneyline while the total is set at 40.5. Bijan Robinson showed out in his first contest while Drake London disappeared, giving value for both as Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons player props.
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With most of the public down on the Packers entering the season, Green Bay proved the doubters wrong with an impressive offensive showing against the Chicago Bears. Jordan Love seemed to be a seamless transition with the departure of Aaron Rodgers, picking apart the Bears secondary and successfully moving the ball down the field. With Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs dealing with injuries, it may be time for their rookie Jayden Reed to step up in a big way.
Bijan Robinson Over 53.5 Rushing Yards
No running back has entered the league with more hype since Saquon Barkley, and Bijan flashed every ounce of his superstar potential in his first regular season game of the season. He finished week one’s matchup against the Panthers rushing for 56 yards and hauling in six receptions for 27 yards and one touchdown.
While there are not many nice things to say about the Panthers as a whole, their defense is actually poised to maintain league average ranks in Def DVOA with capable run stoppers on the line and at linebacker.
As for the Packers, they ranked near dead last in Def Rush DVOA last year and bring back a majority of that core this season. They were barely tested on the ground in week one as the Bears had to ramp up the pass attack after falling behind quickly in the contest.
Until proven otherwise, the ground game is poised for success on the Falcons end with Bijan running wild against the Packers poor rush defense. Sprinkle in the potential for more attempts in a tighter contest and Bijan will be in a good position to clear this number.
Drake London Under 49.5 Passing Yards
Fantasy owners shook their heads in disappointment as Drake London was a no show in the Falcons first game of the year. It doesn’t look to get better anytime soon as the Falcons offensive identity mirrors that of the Ravens in years past.
With two certified studs in the backfield against a weak Packers rush defense, expect a heavy dose of the run. That takes away passing attempts, directly affecting Drake London’s volume on the outside.
Worse yet for the pass catching unit, the running back duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have carved out a role in the pass attack as well. With Desmond Ridder taking a conservative approach, both running backs combined for nine receptions out of Ridder’s 18 attempts.
Jordan Love Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
It was a great first showing for new Packers starting quarterback Jordan Love as he torched the Bears to the tune of 245 yards and three touchdowns. He now takes on a stout defense in the Atlanta Falcons, no longer getting the benefit of a clean pocket for a majority of the contest.
Jordan. Love. What a play 😮
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/fvtoY17rYW— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 10, 2023
While Jordan Love proved to be a capable passer in week one, it’s safe to say he far exceeded expectations and regression looms large against a much tougher defense. As the field shrinks near the end zone, the Packers may be better off reverting back to the run with their bully back AJ Dillon and speedster Aaron Jones instead of risking throwing into tighter windows.
Jayden Reed Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
With Christian Watson missing week one, it was up to Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed to step up as the next two targets. Luke Musgrave also carved out a role, producing right away as a pass catching tight end.
Christian Watson is expected to miss this week and Romeo Doubs is dealing with a playable injury. Factor in defenses having to shade towards the flats against Luke Musgrave and more opportunities may open up for Reed as he exploits the gaps in coverage downfield.
Better yet for Reed’s target share, Aaron Jones is also dealing with a hamstring injury and may miss this game as well. He serves as their pass catching back, opening up more targets to Reed’s benefit should he opt out. With more volume comes a higher chance of clearing the over.
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