Utah vs. Oregon State kicks off this Friday at 9:00pm EST in Corvallis as a home game for the Beavers. Oregon State is currently a -3 favorite and -148 on the moneyline while the total is set at 45. Read on for more Utah vs. Oregon State best bets and predictions as Utah looks to keep this close in an ugly defensive slugfest.
Utah Vs. Oregon State Prediction & Best Bet
Utah started out by getting a pick six on the first pass of the game and did not look back, containing UCLA’s Dante Moore throughout a majority of the contest. An impressive outing from one of the most stout defenses in the league against the electric UCLA offense.
They now hit the road and take on an identity change in the opposing offense as Oregon State will look to wear the Utes down with their ground game. Oregon State boasts one of the best offensive lines in football, a line that is geared towards pushing back on the opposing line and opening up gaps for their running backs. So far this season Oregon State ranks first in Off Rush Success Rate and fifth in Off Rush PPA.
This creates for an interesting battle when these two units hit the field as they take on one of the best defenses in the league. More specifically on the ground as Utah ranks ninth in Def Rush Success Rate and 22nd in Def Rush PPA. Explosiveness comes at a moderate rate as the Beavers rank around league average and Utah limits the big play at a high rate. Expect more of a battle within five yards than the long gain.
Factor in the Utes ability to shut down the pass and this game script calls for a clock draining slugfest between the trenches. DJ Uiagalelei struggles with consistency, throwing for a lackluster 57.8% and three interceptions to his seven passing touchdowns. Against a Havoc minded defense, Oregon State will potentially be better off by abusing the run in an effort to avoid putting themselves in a bad position with a field flipping turnover.
As for the Utes offense, it has been about as anemic as it gets without star quarterback Cam Rising. Passing metrics are at a near league worst while the ground game has not been much better. Opposing defenses are able to stack the box with ease, selling out to stop the run and daring Utah to beat them over the top. Figuring Cam Rising is still out for this one, expect more of the same as Utah’s offense struggles to move the ball down the field.
Utah Vs. Oregon State Prediction & Best Bet: Under 45
Utah Vs. Oregon State Betting Odds
Even off a heartbreaking loss, oddsmakers still believe this is the Beavers game to lose by opening them as a -2.5 favorite. Bettors are in the same mindset, backing Oregon State past the key number of -3 and resting at -3.5 as of writing. While it was shocking to see this blow past the key number, it’s well warranted as Oregon State has had more all-around success and gets the benefit of hosting the injury riddled Utes in Corvallis.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 47.5. Bettors believe points will be scored at a slower pace, taking the under down to as low as 44.5 in some shops. This comes as no surprise as the game script calls for a heavy dose of the run from both offenses, draining the clock at a consistent rate with both defenses being more than capable of limiting each other’s success.
Utah Vs. Oregon State Key Matchups
Can Utah’s ground game get it going against the Oregon State defense?
Utes Stable of Running Backs Vs. Oregon State Front Seven
With the Utah pass attack practically non-existent, it’s up to their stable of running backs to find success in an effort to move the ball down the field. That has yet to be seen as Utah currently ranks 102nd in Rush Success Rate, 99th in Rush PPA, and 71st in Rush Explosiveness.
DraftKings’ odds to win the Pac-12 Championship Game:
Washington St. 16/1
Oregon St. 18/1
— Brian Edwards Sports (@vegasbedwards) September 26, 2023
They now take on an Oregon State defense who struggles to contain opposing rush success in the short gain. The Beavers rank 78th in Def Rush Success Rate, giving up half the distance to gain at a high rate to opposing offenses. This may be exactly what the Utes need, getting friendlier field position than what they have been accustomed to.