Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Preview (10/10/21): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Preview (10/10/21)

This might be the best Sunday Night Football game we’ll get all season.

While they lost Week 1 against the Steelers, the Bills have outscored their opponents 123-21 over the past three games. Josh Allen has been awesome, and the defense shut out both the Bills and Texans.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is a lousy 2-2. Mahomes and the offense are clicking, but Andy Reid’s never coached a worse defense.

Kansas City is laying three points at home, but I’m not sure they’ve played up to those expectations so far. But does that mean the Bills are an auto-bet? Or is there a better betting angle we can take?

Let’s dig into this highly entertaining SNF matchup.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds

The Chiefs’ offense is amazing. The Bills’ defense is amazing. Something has to break, right?

Yes — it’s going to be the Kansas City defense.

As I’ll show below, this defense can’t stop a nose bleed. They rank dead last in the NFL in every meaningful metric. Their secondary is garbage, and their front seven is garbage. There’s a reason this total (56.5) is the highest on the board this week.

When dissecting Sunday’s card, it’ll be tempting to bet an over between Allen and Mahomes. However, don’t make the contrarian play, all the smart money is on the under (39% of the tickets, 70% of the handle).

Instead, take the underdog in this spot, as 2021 NFL dogs are still hitting at a 60% clip. The projection market makes Buffalo less than two-point underdogs, giving us plenty of value on the key number of 3.

All the betting trends point towards the Bills in this spot, too:

• The Bills are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games
• The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
• The Cheifs are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games
• The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games
• Josh Allen is 14-6-2 ATS as an underdog
• Josh Allen is 11-4-1 ATS in games with a line of three or less

The Bills have a well-rounded roster, featuring an electric quarterback and an elite defense. The Chiefs have a lopsided roster, featuring a broken defense. I’ll take the former and the points.

My Predictions: Bills +3 (-115 on BetMGM)

TV Schedule

Date: Sunday, October 10
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV Coverage: NBC

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Live Stream

Where can you watch Bills vs. Raiders online? You can stream this game, and many other NFL games live online with Hulu. Hulu has a 7 Day free trial and is cheaper than cable options at $5.99/month. Watch Bills vs. Raiders Free Online Now.

Injuries

Buffalo Bills: Tre’Davious White (Q), Greg Rousseau (Q), Jordan Poyer (Q)
Kansas City Chiefs: Charvarius Ward (Q), Frank Clark (Q)

Buffalo Bills Analysis

But the Bills aren’t just pacing the league in these stats, they’re leading the league by a lot in these stats. The Bills defense has posted a -0.341 EPA/P this season, while the second-place Broncos have posted -0.116. That differential is common among many of these metrics.

The Bills’ defense has been less successful. But many of their numbers are being dragged down by their season opener against the Steelers. This unit can move the ball, and Allen can be just as magical as Mahomes:

https://twitter.com/BuffaloBills/status/1444719652471558150?s=20

Tanner McGrath

Tanner joined Lineups to cover everything, but he has vast experience in, and unlimited passion for, Major League Baseball and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs. Patrick Mahomes is a poor man’s Tom Brady.