Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Preview (10/10/21): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Preview (10/10/21)
This might be the best Sunday Night Football game we’ll get all season.
While they lost Week 1 against the Steelers, the Bills have outscored their opponents 123-21 over the past three games. Josh Allen has been awesome, and the defense shut out both the Bills and Texans.
Meanwhile, Kansas City is a lousy 2-2. Mahomes and the offense are clicking, but Andy Reid’s never coached a worse defense.
Kansas City is laying three points at home, but I’m not sure they’ve played up to those expectations so far. But does that mean the Bills are an auto-bet? Or is there a better betting angle we can take?
Let’s dig into this highly entertaining SNF matchup.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds
The Chiefs’ offense is amazing. The Bills’ defense is amazing. Something has to break, right?
Yes — it’s going to be the Kansas City defense.
As I’ll show below, this defense can’t stop a nose bleed. They rank dead last in the NFL in every meaningful metric. Their secondary is garbage, and their front seven is garbage. There’s a reason this total (56.5) is the highest on the board this week.
When dissecting Sunday’s card, it’ll be tempting to bet an over between Allen and Mahomes. However, don’t make the contrarian play, all the smart money is on the under (39% of the tickets, 70% of the handle).
Instead, take the underdog in this spot, as 2021 NFL dogs are still hitting at a 60% clip. The projection market makes Buffalo less than two-point underdogs, giving us plenty of value on the key number of 3.
All the betting trends point towards the Bills in this spot, too:
- The Bills are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games
- The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
- The Cheifs are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games
- The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games
- Josh Allen is 14-6-2 ATS as an underdog
- Josh Allen is 11-4-1 ATS in games with a line of three or less
The Bills have a well-rounded roster, featuring an electric quarterback and an elite defense. The Chiefs have a lopsided roster, featuring a broken defense. I’ll take the former and the points.
My Predictions: Bills +3 (-115 on BetMGM)
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You can bet on this NFL game legally. Sports betting has been legalized in the US. You must be located in a legalized state in order to bet online.
Date: Sunday, October 10
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV Coverage: NBC
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Live Stream
Where can you watch Bills vs. Raiders online? You can stream this game, and many other NFL games live online with Hulu. Hulu has a 7 Day free trial and is cheaper than cable options at $5.99/month. Watch Bills vs. Raiders Free Online Now.
Buffalo Bills: Tre’Davious White (Q), Greg Rousseau (Q), Jordan Poyer (Q)
Kansas City Chiefs: Charvarius Ward (Q), Frank Clark (Q)
Buffalo Bills Analysis
Here’s where the Bills defense ranks among different advanced stats:
- 1st in Defense DVOA
- 1st in Passing Defense DVOA
- 2nd in Rushing Defense DVOA
- 1st in Defensive Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/P)
- 1st in Passing Defense EPA/P
- 2nd in Rushing Defense EPA/P
- 1st in Defensive Success Rate
- 1st in Defensive Passing Succes Rate
- 1st in Defensive Rush Success Rate
- 1st in PFF’s Defense grades
- 1st in PFF’s Coverage grades
But the Bills aren’t just pacing the league in these stats, they’re leading the league by a lot in these stats. The Bills defense has posted a -0.341 EPA/P this season, while the second-place Broncos have posted -0.116. That differential is common among many of these metrics.
The Bills’ defense has been less successful. But many of their numbers are being dragged down by their season opener against the Steelers. This unit can move the ball, and Allen can be just as magical as Mahomes:
Buffalo Bills Depth Chart
Kansas City Chiefs Analysis
Patrick Mahomes has been easily the most efficient quarterback in the NFL this season.
That’s been true since he entered the league, but this year is slightly different. He’s completed 72.3% of his passes for over 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns — a torrid, record-breaking 60 touchdown pace.
But as Kansas City has scored the second-most points in the NFL (134), they’ve also allowed the second-most points in the NFL (125). Here’s how the Chiefs defense ranks among important advanced stats:
- 32nd in Defense DVOA
- 31st in Passing Defense DVOA
- 32nd in Rushing Defense DVOA
- 32nd in Defense EPA/P
- 29th in Passing Defense EPA/P
- 32nd in Rush Defense EPA/p
- 32nd in Defensive Passing Success Rate
- 32nd in Defensive Rushing Success Rate
- 31st in PFF’s Defensive grades
- 32nd in PFF’s Rush Defense grades
Mahomes can score 35 points a game, but he’s not going to win another Super Bowl carrying this defense.
Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Daily Fantasy Picks
Buffalo’s offense is going to have a field day. So, we just have to target a Bill who will get a lot of opportunities.
You could look to Stefon Diggs, who leads the team in Target Marketshare (27%) and Air Yard Marketshare (37%). But, the better value pick would be Zack Moss.
Moss has scored three touchdowns through three games this season, and he should have some more goal-line upside. But more importantly, Moss has attained 33% of Buffalo’s Rush Attempt Marketshare, which is comparable to Devin Singletary’s 40%.
Moss should be priced lower than Singletary in the DFS markets while still providing almost as much upside. I’d take a shot on Moss in your lineups this Sunday.
- Bills @ Rams
- Saints @ Falcons
- Browns @ Panthers
- 49ers @ Bears
- Steelers @ Bengals
- Eagles @ Lions
- Colts @ Texans
- Patriots @ Dolphins
- Ravens @ Jets
- Jaguars @ Commanders
- Giants @ Titans
- Chiefs @ Cardinals
- Raiders @ Chargers
- Packers @ Vikings
- Buccaneers @ Cowboys
- Broncos @ Seahawks