Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders Matchup Preview (10/10/21) Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
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Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders Matchup Preview (10/10/21)
With the Raiders coming off a tough loss to the Chargers and the Bears coming off a convincing win against the Lions, it’s fair to wonder if this spread is slightly too small.
But there’s a lot to unpack in this game. The Bears are still holding out “hope” that Andy Dalton will be ready to start Sunday, while both team’s starting running backs are dealing with injury.
However, Derek Carr is sure to perform better than whichever quarterback Chicago chooses. And while the Raiders defense is much improved, the Bears defense is aging quickly — although the unit made positive strides last week.
The Raiders opened as 4.5-point favorites but the line has quickly been bet up to -5.5. Meanwhile, the total opened at 46.5 but has moved to 44.5, despite the majority of the tickets and handle being on the over.
So, where does the value lie in this Week 5 matchup?
Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders Betting Odds
With 65% of the tickets and 74% of the handle on the over, the line shouldn’t have moved the other way. We characterize that as reverse line movement, and it’s a profitable bet signal.
The Bears’ defense doesn’t grade out well in PFF’s rankings, but they’re above average from an efficiency standpoint. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ offense is below average from an efficiency standpoint, and they are downright awful in the run game. Richie Incognito’s injury is still causing issues on the Raiders’ offensive line, and I think they’ll struggle to move the ball.
Meanwhile, we have no idea what we’ll get from the Bears at quarterback this week. But whether it’s Dalton or Justin Fields under center, the Bears are going to struggle to pass the ball against the Raiders’ elite defensive line. Plus, the loss of David Montgomery significantly hinders Chicago’s offensive potential.
Unders have been hot in the NFL so far this season, as 37 of 64 games through Week 4 have gone under (58% hit rate, 11% ROI). While I expect regression to the mean, it’s not going to happen in this game. I’ll happily play the under 44.5 but want to bet it before it reaches the key number of 43.
My Predictions: Under 44.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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You can bet on this NFL game legally. Sports betting has been legalized in the US. You must be located in a legalized state in order to bet online.
TV Schedule
Date: Sunday, October 10
Time: 4:05 PM ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
TV Coverage: CBS
Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders Live Stream
Where can you watch Bears vs. Raiders online? You can stream this game, and many other NFL games live online with Hulu. Hulu has a 7 Day free trial and is cheaper than cable options at $5.99/month. Watch Bears vs. Raiders Free Online Now.
Injuries
Chicago Bears: David Montgomery (O)
Las Vegas Raiders: Peyton Barber (Q)
Chicago Bears Analysis
This Bears offense is brutal. It ranks 30th in expected points added per play (EPA/P) and 27th in offensive success rate. However, there are some bright spots.
David Montgomery is the biggest one. Despite the Bears’ offensive line ranking just 20th in adjusted line yards, Montgomery has managed to muster 4.5 yards per attempt. That’s because he ranks 10th among qualified running backs in rushing yards over expected per attempt (.55), per NFL Next Gen Stats.
But guess what:
Per source, tests showed Bears RB David Montgomery has a knee sprain that’s expected to keep him out 4-5 weeks. Not season-ending, but Bears will be without their starting RB for a while.
— Dan Graziano (@DanGrazianoESPN) October 5, 2021
So, that sucks.
But Justin Fields looked good last week. He went 11-for-17 passing while averaging 12.3 yards per attempt. He also made four Big Time Throws to just two one Turnover Worthy Plays.
But he still hasn’t been good:
This defense is interesting. They have some elite playmakers, and the unit ranks eighth in Football Outsiders defense DVOA. However, they grade out as PFF’s 27th best defense, and they’ve allowed an 8:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio against opposing quarterbacks.
The Bears are 1-3 and have a long season left. Per PFF’s power rankings, the Bears have the fourth hardest remaining strength of schedule. That starts with the 3-1 Raiders this Sunday.
Chicago Bears Depth Chart
QB: Justin Fields
RB1: David Montgomery
RB2: Damien Williams
WR1: Allen Robinson
WR2: Marquise Goodwin
WR3: Darnell Mooney
TE1: Cole Kmet
Las Vegas Raiders Analysis
The Raiders are back to their old ways. Currently, they grade out as PFF’s top pressure team while being the top defensive team in Football Outsiders Power Success (runs on third or fourth down that are two yards or less).
Everything starts at the point of attack with the Raiders, and Maxx Crosby is the leader of that unit. Crosby grades out as PFF’s No. 1 edge defender, and while he’s recorded just two sacks, he’s recorded 11 quarterback hits and 17 quarterback hurries — both stats which Crosby paces the NFL in.
But don’t sleep on the other two Raiders edge rushers:
The Raiders are the only team in the NFL with 3 Edge Rushers in the top 10 according to PFF
– Maxx Crosby: 91.4 (#1)
– Carl Nassib: 87.5 (#6)
– Yannick Nagkoue: 83.0 (#10)#RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/07Z19ooCqI— Raiders Report Mitchell Renz (@MitchellRenz365) October 5, 2021
Thanks to these three guys, the Raiders don’t have to blitz, as Las Vegas blitzes at the lowest rate in the NFL (7.2%) per Pro Football Reference. Instead, these three guys provide all the pressure needed.
Derek Carr has been masterful. He’s thrown for the second-most yards in the NFL through four games (1,286) while recording an 8:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s also recorded 16 Big Time Throws, per PFF, which trails only Tom Brady.
He’s also driving the ball down the field. No one has thrown more passes 20+ yards downfield than Carr (27), and Henry Ruggs is now due for at least one big catch per game.
https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1445226331252289538?s=20
But don’t sleep on Darren Waller, however. He still leads the team in Target Marketshare, at 25%, recording 24 total receptions this season. Hunter Renfrow is right behind him at 22, and he’s stepped up his game in recent weeks as well.
Despite that, there are plenty of holes in this Raiders offense. The offensive line sucks (28th in adjusted line yards) and the Raiders haven’t gotten the ground game going (30th in Rush Offense DVOA). Plus, while the Raiders have racked up a lot of air yards, they haven’t been efficient doing it (19th in passing success rate).
Las Vegas Raiders Depth Chart
QB: Derek Carr
RB1: Josh Jacobs
RB2: Kenyan Drake
WR1: Hunter Renfrow
WR2: Henry Ruggs
WR3: Bryan Edwards
TE1: Darren Waller
Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders Daily Fantasy Picks
There are several players to pick from in this game. My top picks are:
- Damien Williams
- Darren Waller
- Hunter Renfrow
These three guys will all get lots of opportunities on Sunday, and all will have decent matchups. However, I would advise caution with this game. I love the under, and that doesn’t bode well for DFS lineups.
- Bills @ Rams
- Saints @ Falcons
- Browns @ Panthers
- 49ers @ Bears
- Steelers @ Bengals
- Eagles @ Lions
- Colts @ Texans
- Patriots @ Dolphins
- Ravens @ Jets
- Jaguars @ Commanders
- Giants @ Titans
- Chiefs @ Cardinals
- Raiders @ Chargers
- Packers @ Vikings
- Buccaneers @ Cowboys
- Broncos @ Seahawks
