Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Matchup Preview (10/17/21): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Matchup Preview (10/17/21)
One of the oldest rivalries in the sport returns to Chicago this Sunday, as the Packers travel south to Chicago to take on the Bears.
Predictably, the Bears have struggled, and their rookie quarterback hasn’t settled into the league quite yet. The defense is aging, and it’s posted questionable advanced statistics over the first few weeks.
However, the Bears picked up a huge win last week, beating the Raiders in Las Vegas. That’s pushed Chicago to 3-2 on the season, and they’re just 4.5-point home underdogs to the Packers in this spot.
But, given the Packers have won four straight, do we sell the Bears in this spot?
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Betting Odds
Yes, we should sell the Bears in this spot.
The Bears were outgained in their win last week, and a Derek Carr interception was a big difference. Fields threw for just 109 yards in that game, completing only 12 of his 20 passes for less than six yards per attempt.
The Bears’ defense has played better than expected, but that’s built on their rush defense. In the passing game, the Bears rank 29th in PFF’s coverage grades.
Aaron Rodgers is going to carve this Bears secondary to shreds. Rodgers has thrown for over 1100 yards in the four games since his embarrassing Week 1 outing, and this offense is clicking on all cylinders, ranking in the top 10 in Passing DVOA.
The Bears have won 19 of their last 22 games against Chicago, covering in 17 of their 19 wins. I would project this line closer to six than 4.5, and I’ll happily take the value in this spot.
My Predictions: Packers -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Date: Sunday, October 17
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
TV Coverage: FOX
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Live Stream
Where can you watch Packers vs. Bears online? You can stream this game, and many other NFL games live online with Hulu. Hulu has a 7 Day free trial and is cheaper than cable options at $5.99/month. Watch Packers vs. Bears Free Online Now.
Green Bay Packers:
Green Bay Packers Analysis
Since tossing for two interceptions in Week 1, Rodgers has posted a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Although they barely squeaked out a win against Cincinnati, Rodgers still carved up the NFL’s 11th-best pass defense (per Passing Defense DVOA) to the tune of 350 yards, two touchdowns, and a late-game drive to tie the game.
Aaron Rodgers making the incredible look easy
What else is new… pic.twitter.com/uTmAAMQN2F
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) October 8, 2021
However, having Davante Adams makes Rodgers’ job a lot easier. The wideout grades out as PFF’s top wide receiver, and he leads the NFL in receptions (42) and receiving yards (579) through five weeks this season.
Predictably, Adams roasted the Cincinnati secondary to the tune of 11 receptions for over 200 yards (18.7 yards per reception). He received a 93.0 PFF receiving grade for his efforts.
There is no better route runner in the NFL than Adams, and he’s sure to continue to cook for the foreseeable future.
Unfortunately, the defense has been more than questionable through five weeks. Particularly in the run game, where they rank 27th in Rush Defense DVOA and 26th in Defensive Rush Success Rate.
However, somewhat luckily, the Packers have forced two turnovers in four straight games. Considering they won two of those games by less than a field goal, I’d expect some turnover regression for the Packers moving forward.
But as long as Rodgers is under center, this team is far and away the favorite to win their division come December.
Green Bay Packers Depth Chart
Chicago Bears Analysis
As mentioned, the Chicago secondary is a mess. While Jaylon Johnson has been good as the CB1, their next two cornerbacks have been horrific.
Duke Shelly has allowed 19 receptions on 25 targets (76%), allowing over 200 yards on over 10 yards per reception. Kindle Vildor has been slightly better in coverage, allowing just 13 receptions on 19 targets (68.4%), but for over 15 yards per reception. Both have picked up a DPI call this season as well.
The offense continues to lag. Fields has looked fine at times, but some performances have been downright embarrassing. For example, check out his passing chart from the Bears Week 3 loss to the Browns:
Meanwhile, the biggest weapon on this offense was David Montgomery, who was running all over the field at a highly efficient rate. However, he’s out indefinitely with a knee injury, and Damien Williams isn’t the back he is, especially behind an offensive line that ranks 20th in Adjusted Line Yards.
Despite their pathetic pass defense, the Bears have been an under team due to their anemic offense. The Bears are 4-1 to the under this season.
If there’s a strength to this team, it’s the defensive line. The Bears rank 12th in Rush Defense DVOA while posting the second-highest adjusted sack rate in the NFL. Khalil Mack may be 30 years old, but he’s still a menace for opposing quarterbacks.
Chicago Bears Depth Chart
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Daily Fantasy Picks
The top DFS pick for this matchup is Davante Adams.
The Bears’ secondary is a mess, and that bodes very well for Adams this week. While he’ll be matched up on the Bears’ top cornerback, Adams is an automatic mismatch against any opponent. They’ll likely have to bracket-coverage him with Eddie Jackson. However, that strategy hasn’t worked yet, as the Bears rank 28th in Pass Defense DVOA vs. No. 1 wide receivers.
Adams has eaten up a team-high 36% of Green Bay’s Target Marketshare through four weeks, including 58% in Week 3 and 31% in Week 4. Expect him to get a lot of opportunity against an underwhelming Chicago pass defense.