Luka Doncic Fantasy Outlook & Value 2019-2020
Contents
I don’t think we were quite expecting the massive impact right off the bat for Luka Doncic in the fantasy world. He crushed his rookie year, and picked up the Rookie of the Year award edging it out over Trae Young. That trade between Atlanta and the Dallas Mavericks looks to have worked out both ways, and both names have big potential in fantasy this year. So now what do we expect for year two? Dallas sat pretty quiet in the free agency market, bringing in Delon Wright. This is a plus for Doncic, because we know the ball is still going to be in his hands. The Mavericks also traded for Kristaps Porzingis, and we are all curious to see how he comes back. We also get to see Doncic play with a potential superstar, because he was trending in that direction before the injury.
Doncic posted a 21-7-6 line last season, with 1.1 steals per game. His FG% was at 42.7%, and he shot 32.7% from three. Those are certainly not bad numbers for a guy in his first season. His efficiency tapered off a bit, as expected, towards the end of the season, His volume went up after the break, which made up for it as he averaged 22 points per game in the second half. As we look to the 2019-20 season, we don’t find ourselves with a Doncic sophomore slump. His ability to chip in across most categories, and his playmaking ability will bring a high fantasy ceiling. He isn’t a flashy athlete, so I am curious to see how the league adjusts in year two.
Luka Doncic Projected Fantasy Stats
GP | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | FG% | FT% | 3PT% | STL | BLK | TO |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 | 34.0 | 24.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 41% | 73% | 32% | 1.3 | 0.3 | 4.5 |
ESPN predicts Luka Doncic as most likely first-time All-Star. Plus, why making it will be no easy task. #MFFL #Mavs https://t.co/DtTuel9k4j
— The Smoking Cuban (@thesmokingcuban) August 28, 2019
Upside
Luka Doncic set the bar extremely high for himself to top this season. I don’t believe we even had last year’s numbers as a ceiling for him. Given what we have seen already, we now turn to project this season. The peripheral stats outside of points per game are going to be in the same range. I don’t expect him to push to be an eight-nine assist or rebound type player. Hovering around six rebounds or assists per game is where he fits in still this season. Where he can improve is the efficiency. For those playing in leagues with FG% and other percentage categories, which should be most, that is where the upside could start to creep in. If he does push some better percentage numbers, a slight increase in points per game is possible.
Because Doncic is now expected to share the court with another high usage player, it will be interesting to see if that upside is capped. I believe that to be the case just a bit, even though he is still a top 25 fantasy player. The plus side is that there isn’t a lot of offensive talent threatening him around the starting lineup. He will still be a primary ball-handler at times, and play off the ball at times. Adding in Porzingis should open the floor a bit more as well.
Floor
A 20-5-5 line is a modest floor for Luka Doncic after what we saw last season. This would be the result of a sophomore slump type season as teams adjust to him a bit. This is still a relatively high season and in line with where he should be drafted at. I am not in belief he will have any sort of slump season, but this is just a realistic floor he can obtain for fantasy this season. He will still have some turnovers, and we have to hope the field goal percentages hold at least from last season. We have seen a lot of first and second year players have erratic FG% to start the season. Overall you should feel comfortable with Doncic, as he has established a strong floor for his fantasy game already.
What to Expect
The hype already started to build as he dominated the fantasy world last season. He is now a top 20 pick, and deservingly so. Will I feel bad missing out on him? No, because this is a fairly deep top 40-50 for this season that can produce similar numbers. Doncic is on par with his ADP and auction value, and I wouldn’t reach any higher than where he is going right now (21st). Devin Booker, Jrue Holiday, and DeMar DeRozan are names still going behind him, so it shows how high he is being valued this season. Those are also the names I would be happy getting if Doncic doesn’t fall to you in drafts.
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