Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints Matchup Preview (12/27/21): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)

Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints Matchup Preview (12/27/21)

The Miami Dolphins travel to the Big Easy this weekend for a Monday night matchup against the New Orleans Saints. Both teams sit at 7-7 after coming off big divisional wins in week 15 — the Dolphins against the Jets and the Saints against the Bucs. With the wild card race continuing to tighten in both conferences, this is effectively a playoff game for each team. The Dolphins are currently 11th in the AFC playoff picture, though they could move to as high as eighth with a win and losses by the Ravens, Raiders, and Steelers. The Saints, meanwhile, are currently 9th in the NFC playoff picture and could move into a wild card spot with a win on Monday and losses by Minnesota and Philadelphia. The Saints and Dolphins have only played each other 12 times since Miami joined the NFL in 1970, with the all-time series tied at 6 a piece.

Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints Betting Odds

Betting Trends

Dolphins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Dolphins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games
Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite
Saints are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog
Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf
Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in December

The Pick

I tend to like Sean Payton’s teams as an underdog at home, but the matchups in this one don’t work out in their favor. For one, New Orleans’ biggest strength is their run defense and the Dolphins already can’t run the ball. Their ability to slow down Myles Gaskin doesn’t neutralize anything in this Miami offense, while Miami’s ability to neutralize Alvin Kamara with their top 7 run defense neutralizes just about everything New Orleans does offensively. Miami’s biggest weakness outside of the run game has been their secondary, and the Saints can’t exploit it with Taysom Hill at quarterback. So long as the line stays under 3, I like Miami to both win and cover.

My Prediction: Miami wins and covers 20-16, and the under hits (u37.5)

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TV Schedule

Date: Monday, December, 27
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome — New Orleans, LA
TV Coverage: NBC

Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints Live Stream

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Injuries

Miami Dolphins: CB Jason McCourty (Foot) O, CB Justin Coleman (COVID-19) O, RB Malcom Brown (Quadriceps) O, OLB Brennan Scarlett (Knee) O, WR Allen Hurns (Wrist) O
New Orleans Saints: OT Terron Armstead (Knee) Q, OT Ryan Ramczyk (Knee) Q, WR Michael Thomas (Ankle) O, K Wil Lutz (Core Muscle/Groin) O, WR Deonte Harris (Suspended) O, QB Jameis Winston (Knee(ACL)) O, OL Andrus Peat (Pectoral) O, DE Payton Turner (Shoulder) O, TE Adam Trautman (COVID-19) O

Miami Dolphins Analysis

If you told a casual NFL fan in week 8 that the Miami Dolphins, who were 1-7 at the time, would be in the playoff conversation come Christmas time, they’d think you were either an overly optimistic Dolphins fan or downright delusional. Seven weeks and six Dolphin wins later, and that’s the exact reality we’re living in. So what changed? For starters, their defense clicked right as they got a massive scheduling break. Since Halloween, the Dolphins have only played one team with a winning record and are holding opponents to just 13.2 points a game on average.

This Dolphins defense has shined the most against the run this year, where they allow just 103 yards per game. Against the pass they rank 22nd, giving up over 245 yards a game. They have the seventh best red zone defense, allowing touchdowns on just 51.02 percent of opponent red zone drives, and the seventh best red zone offense, scoring on 62.79 percent of their own red zone drives.

The Dolphins rank 22nd in total yards per game, at 314.7, with the fifth worst rushing attack in the NFL. They have had some success in the passing game as of late, averaging 235.8 yards through the air over their last 4 games, including a 230 yard performance against one of the best secondaries in the NFL in Carolina. They have the 10th highest completion percentage in the NFL this season, though they rank 5th to last in yards per pass attempt. Whether or not the Dolphins stay with Tua going forward is a multi-million dollar question for GM Chris Grier. While he may be limited athletically, the Dolphins haven’t lost a game since they fully committed to him at quarterback in week 10.

Miami Dolphins Depth Chart

QB: Tua Tagovailoa
RB1: Duke Johnson
RB2: Myles Gaskin
RB3: Phillip Lindsay
WR1: Jaylen Waddle
WR2: DeVante Parker
WR3: Albert Wilson
TE1: Mike Gesicki

New Orleans Saints Analysis

Tom Coughlin, Nick Foles, and the regular season New Orleans Saints. That’s a comprehensive list of everyone who’s had Tom Brady’s number over the course of his 22 year career. Last Sunday’s 9-0 win over the Buccaneers is a testament to how versatile this Saints defense is at nearly every position. Against the run, they rank fifth in total yards allowed a game, allowing just 96.6 yards an outing, and rank first in yards per rush at 3.8.

Against the pass, they rank 18th in yards allowed and sixth in touchdowns allowed. At different times this season, they’ve completely shut down Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers with their veteran defensive backfield led by Malcom Jenkins and Marshon Lattimore. They have the best red zone defense in the NFL, allowing touchdowns on just 43.59 percent of opponent red zone drives. They have the sixth best fourth quarter defense and the eighth best yards per play defense at 5.3 yds/play.

The offensive side of the ball has been a struggle for the Saints ever since Jameis Winston tore his ACL in week 8. Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian have had good moments, but they’ve been nothing to build around. New Orleans ranks 17th in scoring offense, and 29th in passing yards per game. With widespread injuries at wide receiver, this offense is very dependent on Alvin Kamara for offensive production. Only 4 teams throw the ball less than the Saints.

New Orleans Saints Depth Chart

QB: Taysom Hill
RB1: Alvin Kamara
RB2: Mark Ingram II
WR1: Tre’Quan Smith
WR2: Marquez Callaway
WR3: Lil’Jordan Humphrey
TE1: Adam Trautman

Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints Daily Fantasy Pick

Against a Saints run defense that is arguably the best in the league, the Dolphins are going to have to throw the ball to win on Monday night. Over the last six weeks, TE Mike Gesicki has emerged as one of Tua’s favorite targets — averaging 48.9 yards on 4.6 catches a game. The Saints can get to the quarterback quick, and having a quick target at tight end is going to be incredibly useful. Gesicki is currently listed at $5,000 on DraftKings.

As a central Ohio native and lifelong Cleveland sports fan, Patrick Monnin has lived the emotional rollercoaster every sports fan knows all too well. Whether it be the Browns or the Buckeyes, he loves watching football and going on nice long runs in the afternoon. In the local Chicago area, where he now lives, he can often be found making the case for LeBron James as the greatest basketball player ever.

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