San Francisco 49ers Matchup vs. Arizona Cardinals Preview (10/10/21) Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Matchup Preview (10/10/21)
The 49ers are in shambles. The whole roster is in the hospital, including Jimmy Garrapolo now.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are on the upswing. After beating the loaded Rams handily, Arizona is the last undefeated team in the NFL.
As such, the Cardinals are 5.5-point favorites, although this line opened closer to -4 and has been bet up with the injury news. Meanwhile, the total has been bet down from 50 to 46, also in response to the injury news.
Arizona is receiving the majority of the public backing, but does that mean their stock is too high? Or should we auto-fade the 49ers and their injury-plagued roster?
Let’s dive into this Sunday afternoon matchup.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Betting Odds
You absolutely shouldn’t back the 49ers injury-plagued roster.
You should fade it. Considering the Cardinals have Kyler Murray and numerous elite weapons, this game is going to play out similarly to how the Seattle game played out last week. San Francisco is not going to keep up with this offense.
Part of that is because the Cardinals’ defense has been so good. While San Francisco’s offense isn’t bad, they’re overmatched in this game.
While it’s a rather contrarian play, I’m laying the points with the Cardinals at home. This is a no-brainer, “don’t think, just go” bet.
My Predictions: Cardinals -5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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You can bet on this NFL game legally. Sports betting has been legalized in the US. You must be located in a legalized state in order to bet online.
TV Schedule
Date: Sunday, October 10
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
TV Coverage: Fox
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Live Stream
Where can you watch 49ers vs. Raiders online? You can stream this game, and many other NFL games live online with Hulu. Hulu has a 7 Day free trial and is cheaper than cable options at $5.99/month. Watch 49ers vs. Raiders Free Online Now.
Injuries
San Francisco 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo (Q), George Kittle (Q)
Arizona Cardinals: Chase Edmonds (Q), Maxx Williams (Q)
San Francisco 49ers Analysis
It’s a bit unfair to judge the 49ers on their season so far, considering Kyle Shanahan only has half a roster. Considering the circumstances, losing to both Green Bay and Seattle by less than a touchdown isn’t terrible. And the Niners haven’t been terrible from an efficiency perspective.
Whether it’s been Garoppolo or Trey Lance under center, the 49ers have been able to move the ball. They rank ninth in Passing DVOA, behind an offensive line that ranks fifth in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades. By most metrics, the 49ers are a top-10 passing offense.
What’s surprising is that the rushing offense has lagged. Shanahan normally leans on his rush attack, and he’s one of the most creative rush offense schemers in the NFL. However, all of his running backs are injured, and now George Kittle — one of the best blocking TEs — is now banged up too.
It’s too bad, considering the offensive line has graded out great in the rushing game as well (sixth in PFF’s Run Block grades, 13th in adjusted line yards).
The defense is just too handicapped. The 49ers currently have four CBs and LB Dre Greenlaw on the injury report, and those guys make up four of the 49ers’ top six coverage defenders per PFF.
Because of that, the Niners couldn’t keep up with Seattle and their litany of weapons. Unfortunately, they have a similar test this week.
San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo
RB1: Trey Sermon
RB2: Elijah Mitchell
WR1: Deebo Samuel
WR2: Brandon Aiyuk
TE1: George Kittle
Arizona Cardinals Analysis
At the beginning of the season, I bet no one picked the Cardinals to win this division.
While everyone wants to crown Kyler Murray as the savior (he’s now the MVP betting favorite), it’s the defense that’s shined in Arizona.
Arizona ranks third in Pass Defense DVOA and fifth in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/P). That starts with the guys up front, as Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt have combined for 15 quarterback hurries and 12 quarterback hits.
Arizona blitzes a lot, at the seventh-highest rate in the league (30.2%). But while the defensive front hasn’t gotten that much pressure outside of Jones and Watt (they rank just 20th in pressure rate, at 23.8%), the Cardinals have the secondary that allows Vance Joseph to dial it up.
The Cardinals rank fifth in PFF’s coverage grade. Although they lost Patrick Peterson, Byron Murhpy Jr. and Robert Alford have been surprisingly productive. Specifically, Murphy, who’s allowed just a 52.4% completion percentage when targeted this season.
Highest-graded CBs in single coverage. Byron Murphy Jr. (88.1), Kristian Fulton (84.4), Jaylon Johnson (82.1) pic.twitter.com/6bvLHMGRWb
— Main Team (@MainTeamSports) October 6, 2021
Remembering that the entirety of the 49ers’ secondary is injured, let’s quickly touch on Murray and Co.
While Murray has been one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the NFL:
He also has some elite weapons to throw to. DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk come to mind, and Rondale Moore has caught 16 of his 18 targets this season.
However, A.J. Green has come to life in Arizona, as he paces the team in yards (248) and yards per reception (16.5). He should be considered for Comeback Player of the Year, and he’s been quite the pickup for anyone’s fantasy team.
Are you really surprised? A.J. Green in for 6@ajgreen_18 x #RedSea pic.twitter.com/4uSekWSRwY
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) October 3, 2021
All-in-all, Arizona has five guys that have received between 15% and 18% of the Target Marketshare. Murray loves to spread the ball around, and the San Francisco cornerbacks are in for a rough Sunday as a result.
Arizona Cardinals Depth Chart
QB: Kyler Murray
RB1: Chase Edmonds
RB2: James Conner
WR1: DeAndre Hopkins
WR2: Christian Kirk
WR3: Rondale Moore
TE1: Maxx Williams
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Daily Fantasy Picks
As I’ve mentioned, the 49ers secondary is in a really bad state. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have three guys tied for first place in Target Marketshare (18%):
- A.J. Green
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Chase Edmonds
Any of these guys would be worth a play. As well as Christian Kirk, who’s right behind them in that stat (17%).
However, the best DFS play for this matchup is Deebo Samuel. Samuel currently leads the entire NFL in receiving yards, and he’s picked up 35% of San Francisco’s Target Marketshare. Meanwhile, the injured Kittle is in second, at 20%, meaning Samuel is sure to see his usage increase.
Both Garroppolo and Lance have been effective passing the ball this season, and they’re sure to look Samuel’s way a lot in this game.
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