Bills Odds to Win Super Bowl 2021
Bills Odds to Win Super Bowl: +2700
Bills Win Total: 8.5
Bills Odds to Win Division: +130
Bills Odds to Win Conference: +1300
Bills Odds Analysis
The Bills have not seen much of the NFL postseason since the turn of the century, but last year’s 10-6 record was good enough to get Buffalo into the postseason for the second time in three years. An overtime loss to the Houston Texans in the Wild Card Round ended the ride quickly. Nonetheless, optimism is high across Western New York for an even better showing in 2020-21.
There are a lot of different viewpoints out there as to just what the Bills ceiling will be this season. The betting market doesn’t seem to think Buffalo is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Bills’ current Super Bowl LV odds of +2700 at FanDuel Sportsbook are the 14th shortest odds of all 32 NFL teams. Their AFC Championship odds of +1300 rank as the 6th shortest in the conference, while their season win total of 8.5 seems to hint that last year’s 10-win mark was an overachievement.
AFC East Betting Analysis
The betting odds for the AFC East division winner are very tight no matter which sportsbook you reference. Currently, at FanDuel, the Bills and New England Patriots are co-favorites to win the division at +130 odds. The New York Jets sit third at +700 while the Miami Dolphins bring up the rear at +750.
The big headline concerning the division this offseason was Tom Brady’s departure from New England. While Jarrett Stidham could wind up being a fine NFL quarterback, it is certainly the end of an era. Many believe that New England’s stranglehold on the top of the AFC East has come to a close. On the backs of their defense and some notable offseason additions, the Bills are a popular pick to claim the throne this year. The Jets and Dolphins both put together tremendous offseasons as well. Although their odds suggest that they are longshots, either team could make some real noise in 2020-21.
The schedule is a brutal one this year for the Bills and the entire division. With the entire AFC and NFC West divisions on the slate, it is conceivable that no AFC East team will surpass, or possibly even reach 10 wins this year. Winning divisional battles will be paramount. With that said, the key spots for the Bills come when they open the season with back-to-back AFC East games against the Jets and Dolphins, play the Jets and Patriots in consecutive weeks midway through, and close with the Patriots and Dolphins in Weeks 16 and 17.
Bills Offseason and Draft
Even after finding success last season, the Bills didn’t rest on their laurels. Reigning coach of the year Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane kept their foot on the gas this offseason. The result is a team with even more potential.
The highlight of Buffalo’s offseason came when they traded for wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The lack of a true top wideout was sorely noticeable for the Bills last season. Diggs provides just that, and he also fits the win-now plans of the team. Buffalo opted to trade their first-round draft pick in what was a deep receiver class to get him, but the move ensures they know what they are working with right away. Diggs is easily the best option third-year QB Josh Allen has had since arriving in the NFL.
Diggs will be joined in the receiving corps by a pair of veterans in John Brown and slot man Cole Beasley. Despite the short stature of both men relative to the typical NFL wide receiver, each possesses great speed and shiftiness. Rookie fourth-round draft pick Gabriel Davis possesses the size and tools to blossom at the NFL level. Tight end hasn’t been a major position of emphasis in the Bills offense, but Dawson Knox is capable of getting the job done as a pass catcher if need be.
The Bills backfield is full of youth. 2019 draft pick Devin Singletary showed amazing burst in what was, unfortunately, an injury-plagued rookie season. He figures to be the primary ball carrier, but 2020 third-rounder Zack Moss brings another complete skillset to the team. Both backs will be running behind a sturdy offensive line, highlighted by center Mitch Morse and tackles Cody Ford and Dion Dawkins.
The defense was the clear strength and identity of last year’s Bills team. While the offense shored up a couple of key needs this offseason, Buffalo’s defense figures to again do the heavy lifting. The entire defensive line is menacing. Opposing offenses will come to the ball only to see Mario Addison, Ed Oliver, Jerry Hughes, and Star Lotulelei staring back at them. Rookie second-round pick A.J. Epenesa should see regular playing time pretty quickly as well. Tremaine Edmunds anchors the linebackers while free agent acquisition Josh Norman will line up as a corner opposite of star Tre’Davious White. If Norman can rediscover his lockdown ability in Buffalo, look out.
-Ultra-Talented Defensive Front
-Well-Rounded Offensive Attack
-Offensive Line Equipped to Run Block and Pass Protect
-Consistent Quarterback Play
-Talented but Young Running Backs
-Potential Weakness at Right Cornerback
There is a lot to like about the 2020-21 version of the Buffalo Bills. The offense has more firepower than a season ago, while the defense is just as potent, if not more. The Bills have all the pieces in place to win the AFC East division and perhaps enjoy a prolonged playoff run as well.
When it comes to betting on Bills futures, I like them over the co-favorite Patriots to win the division at +130. The Jets are another team that I could see being in the picture as well.
Despite all of the talent and potential Buffalo has amassed, the Super Bowl and AFC Championship are just too much to ask this year as far as I’m concerned. Given the difficult schedules, I also don’t see more than one AFC East team making the postseason, ruling out a yes/no playoffs bet. It’s division winner or bust for me as far as the Bills are concerned.
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