Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Odds 2024: Latest Super Bowl 58 Odds

The current Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Odds are . To no one’s surprise, the Bills entered the 2023 NFL season as one of the favorites in terms of Super Bowl 58 odds. That changed after they started the season just 6-6 and sustained multiple injuries to key players, but they finished the season on an impressive five-game winning streak to clinch their fourth consecutive AFC East division title. Their win over the Steelers in the wild card round sets up another epic showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round. The Bills have a very good chance to earn their first Super Bowl appearance since 1994 and possibly win their first Lombardi Trophy in franchise history.

Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Odds & Futures 2023-2024

After a rollercoaster season, the Bills entered the 2024 playoffs with the 3rd best Super Bowl odds behind the 49ers and Ravens. That did not change after the wild card games, as they remain just slightly ahead of their next opponent the Kansas City Chiefs, whose odds are . While the Ravens are the higher seed with the lower odds, the Bills arguably represent a better value at their current odds.

Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Odds & FuturesOdds (Updated April 2024)
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Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Odds Analysis

Never was a roller coaster metaphor more appropriate than for describing the Buffalo Bills’ 2023 season.

It started as low as it gets with an embarrassing loss to the lowly New York Jets on the day Aaron Rodgers got hurt. It then climbed back up after a three-game winning streak before declining to its lowest point at 6-6 entering their bye in week 13.

It has only gone up since then, as the Bills got a huge win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead then built some momentum with a dominant win over the Cowboys and a slightly more stressful victory over the struggling Chargers. That stretch put the Bills back into the AFC playoff picture. They finished the regular season by escaping the division-rival New England Patriots to clinch a playoff spot in week 17 and then defeated the Dolphins on the road in what amounted to a winner-take-all AFC East championship game.

The contest in Miami was not pretty and Josh Allen certainly did not play the best game of his career (or even his season), but the Bills managed to find a few moments of magic to win the game. After their playoff hopes looked to be dead just a few weeks earlier, the Bills not only won the AFC East but also jumped all the way up to the #2 seed in the conference. Their improved seeding paired with tremendous late-season momentum made this team one of the most dangerous squads in the NFL when the postseason kicked off.

A huge reason the Bills were able to get themselves back on track was a tremendously resurgent stretch run from their defense. What was once a top-5 unit per DVOA suffered multiple season-ending injuries to key players like All-Pro LB Matt Milano and CB Tre’Davious White. As a result they dipped down to around and even below league average in defensive DVOA before finishing just outside the top 10. The pass defense was especially solid late in the season and finished the regular season ranked 9th in DVOA. The defense overall will be critical in the playoffs as the Bills face the top QBs in the AFC like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.

On the other side of the ball, the offense has been under fire for all the wrong reasons. Josh Allen has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league yet faced intense scrutiny when the Bills were struggling earlier this season. Admittedly, Allen does throw some ill-advised interceptions that can sometimes hurt the team at the worst time, but he was hardly the biggest reason for Buffalo’s struggles this year. The offense finished the regular season ranked 3rd in offensive DVOA, 3rd in passing offense DVOA, and 7th in rushing offense DVOA. If anything, Allen was the main reason the Bills kept their playoff hopes alive.

You could find Bills Super Bowl odds as high as +5000 after the loss to the Eagles that dropped them to 6-6, but as AFC East champions and the #2 seed, that number is now down to +500. Thanks to their late-season surge to earn the two seed, the Bills will host the Chiefs for Patrick Mahomes’ first-ever road playoff game, rather than taking on the dubious task of another trip to Kansas City with their season on the line.

Considering that Buffalo already beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead this season and now they have home field advantage, it is easy to like their chances of advancing to the AFC Championship game. Allen is 3-3 in his career against Mahomes but is 0-2 against him in the playoffs. If he can exorcise those playoff demons, the Ravens will likely await him in the AFC Championship Game. He will be a slight underdog in that game but certainly has a very good chance to pull off an upset.

The Bills are arguably the hottest team in the league right now and represent a very good value at their current Super Bowl futures odds.

 

Reasons Why the Bills Can and Can’t Win the Super Bowl

Strengths

  • Josh Allen is one of the most lethal dual threat quarterbacks in the league with plenty of weapons at his disposal.
  • James Cook is performing at an extremely high level since Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator, making the offense very balanced and even more dominant.
  • The defense was one of the best units in the league over the final five games of the regular season.

Weaknesses

  • Josh Allen can be prone to turnover issues when he tries to play “hero ball” and forces passes into tight windows.
  • Multiple key starters on the defense are out for the season, which could be more difficult to overcome against the toughest competition in the playoffs.
  • The run defense can still be a vulnerability and can make it difficult for the defense to get off the field.
Jason Guilbault is the Brand Content Manager for Lineups.com, powered by Catena Media. He has worked 10+ in the sports betting & iGaming space as a writer and content manager. Jason has also written for DailyFantasyCafe, NBAMockDraft, & FantasyPros. He aims to bring the best sports data & insight to the industry for both novice & advanced users.

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