DraftKings NFL Week 4 Buy Sell + Optimal DFS Lineups
Contents
Quarterbacks
Players I’m Buying
High-Priced Tier ($6,700+): I pretty much have just left Russell Wilson’s picture here since he’s going to lead this category pretty much each and every week. He’s now priced at $7,800 after starting at $7,000, but he’s still well worth considering for your DraftKings lineup each and every week. He’s somehow on pace for 74.6 passing touchdowns through the first three games and takes on a Dolphins’ defense this week that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Fire Russ up again. Josh Allen ($7,300) is on an unbelievable tear to start this season with 1,038 passing yards and 10 touchdowns through the first three weeks. Allen takes on a Raiders’ defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs this year, but I’m still fine using him in DraftKings. His rushing gives him an awesome baseline and Vegas doesn’t have anyone who can cover Stefon Diggs. While the Cowboys have dropped to 1-2, Dak Prescott ($7,200) has been phenomenal, averaging 31.6 fantasy points per game. He takes on a banged-up Cleveland secondary at home this week and a defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to QBs this year.
Mid-Priced Tier ($5,900-$6,600): My favorite quarterback in this tier is Deshaun Watson ($6,600) who takes on a sad excuse for a Minnesota secondary. The Vikings’ pass defense has been one of the league’s worst this year and Watson is capable of taking advantage. I expect Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks to also have strong games and I would consider stacking Watson with one of them in a lineup. Cam Newton ($6,400) had a letdown of a week after averaging 32.1 fantasy points over his first two games. The Chiefs’ run defense has been very susceptible this season and I expect Newton to have a strong game on the ground. With the Chiefs one of the few teams capable of putting up points in bunches against this defense, Cam Newton will likely need to air it out again as he did against the Seahawks in Week 2. Joe Burrow ($6,300) has averaged 24.5 fantasy points over his last two games and plays a Jacksonville defense this week that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. He should be a strong option this week. Matthew Stafford ($5,900) is a super interesting option at that price as he plays a Saints’ defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Kenny Golladay’s return absolutely transformed this offense and Stafford is going to become infinitely more fantasy-viable. I love the Stafford-Golladay stack this week and I expect this to be a high-scoring shootout that emphasizes the pass.
Low-Priced Tier ($5,000-$5,800): Last week in this section, I recommended Mitchell Trubisky who was subsequently benched against the Falcons. Never again, Mitchell. Never again. Instead, let’s go back to the well of a future first-ballot Hall of Famer in Drew Brees ($5,800). His price is the lowest I can ever remember seeing it and the Saints play a Lions’ secondary this week that has struggled all year. If Michael Thomas returns, this is an absolute slam dunk play, but even if he doesn’t, Brees has value thanks to the dynamic YAC ability of Alvin Kamara. I’m also very interested in Baker Mayfield ($5,800) this week as he travels to face the Cowboys’ defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to QBs so far. Mayfield hasn’t been a high-octane option to this point, but there’s a strong chance this is his best week of the season as he looks to play catch-up with the lethal Cowboys’ offense. Rounding out this tier, I actually think Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400) is a pretty interesting punt play. The Seahawks have allowed more passing yards than any other defense this year, and it’s not even close, and Fitz will need to air out the offense as his Dolphins play from behind. Fitzpatrick has 25+ fantasy points in each of his last two matchups and in a plus spot here, I think he hits that number again.
Players I’m Selling
High-Priced Tier ($6,700+): I don’t love quarterbacks playing on the road after a short week, and that describes both Lamar Jackson ($8,100) and Patrick Mahomes ($7,400). Jackson plays what has been a stout Washington front seven that can likely limit his rushing production and Mahomes plays one of the best secondaries in football in New England. I’ll still likely have both of these guys ranked inside my top five in my weekly rankings, but on a short week and in a tough matchup, I’m not willing to spend up on either guy in DraftKings. I also have concerns about Kyler Murray with the second-year quarterback quietly struggling in the desert. His rushing production has buoyed his fantasy value (28.4 fantasy points per game), but he’s on pace for 21.3 rushing touchdowns which aren’t sustainable. Murray faces a surprisingly tough Panthers’ defense this week that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to QBs, and I’m looking for other options. Jared Goff ($6,700) has moved into this tier after a strong road performance against what should have been a stout Buffalo defense, and this week he plays the Giants. My main concern for Goff is that the Rams may be able to run the ball a ton to win this game and not have the need to air it out. With how good Darrell Henderson looks, I’m not expecting Goff to have another multi-touchdown game.
Mid-Priced Tier ($5,900-$6,600): Tom Brady ($6,100) looked excellent last week in throwing for just under 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he faces a stiffer challenge this week. The Chargers’ secondary is capable of giving Tampa’s wideouts fits in coverage and Brady will be the likely absence of Chris Godwin in this game as he’s dealing with a hamstring injury. I’m also not thrilled about playing Gardner Minshew ($5,900) against a Bengals’ defense that Football Outsiders has as the eighth-best pass-defending unit in football. With the return of D.J. Chark, Minshew should be in for a bounce-back week, but I don’t love the matchup.
Low-Priced Tier ($5,000-$5,800): Kirk Cousins ($5,600) is playing some of the worst football of his career and I’m not playing him in any matchup, even against a Texans defense that has been subpar this season. Justin Herbert ($5,800) is an easy sell as a rookie playing on the road against a tough Tampa defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to QBs this year. I also have minimal interest in Nick Foles ($5,700) even after an impressive performance last week as the Colts have allowed the fewest fantasy points to QBs.
Running Backs
Players I’m Buying
High-Priced Tier ($6,800+): Alvin Kamara ($8,000) is playing some of the best football of any player at any position. He’s averaging 36.6 fantasy points per game and is coming off a monstrous 47.7-point effort against the Packers. Kamara has 22 catches in the last two games and will continue to have a massive role in the passing game as long as Michael Thomas is out. Even if Thomas returns, Kamara will be able to exploit the Lions defense that has allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to running backs so far. Ezekiel Elliot ($7,800) has four touchdowns in three games and this week’s game script should enable him to get much more than the 14 carries he saw last week. The Browns’ run defense has been solid this year, but Zeke is still a strong play given his elite talent and role in the offense. Dalvin Cook ($7,600) has a huge opportunity for success against a Texans defense that has allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to RBs. This should be a close, high-scoring game with neither team playing any defense this year and the game script will allow heavy usage for Cook. Finally, I’m buying Josh Jacobs ($6,800) for a bounce-back after a rough game against the Patriots. Jacobs is averaging 26 touches per game this season and the Bills’ defense was just torched by Darrell Henderson last week.
Mid-Priced Tier ($5,500-$6,700): Jonathan Taylor ($6,600) only had 13 carries last week as the game was over by halftime and Jordan Wilkins took over in the backfield. This offensive line is elite, and Taylor should be more involved this week as I expect the 3-0 Bears to keep it close throughout. The Bears have been a middle-of-the-pack defense against RBs and Taylor should have a big workload and take advantage. I’m also all in on James Robinson ($6,500) this week against the Bengals’ defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs this year. Robinson had 17 touches for 129 all-purpose yards last week and is quickly making a name for himself as an undrafted rookie. I would be pushing Chris Carson ($6,300) hard this week but his status for the game is up in the air after his sprained knee at the hands of a dirty play by a Cowboys defensive lineman. The Seahawks are playing in what should be a run-heavy game script against a Miami defense that has struggled to defend the run all year. If Carson is able to play, fire him up for DFS. This is going to be another week that I recommend Kenyan Drake ($6,000), and I really think it’s only a matter of time before the Cardinals’ running back starts to produce with the usage he’s seeing. The Cardinals are facing a Carolina defense that is allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points to RBs this year. I’ll also happily play Darrell Henderson ($5,800) after he has scored 20+ fantasy points in his last two games. Mike Davis ($5,700) is also a great target as he has had 8 catches in each of the past two games and faces a Cardinals’ defense this week that has given up the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs.
Low-Priced Tier ($4,000-$5,400): Carlos Hyde ($5,300) is well worth monitoring as it’s very possible Chris Carson misses this game. If he does, Hyde would be the starting running back and would have a great opportunity against a Miami defense that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to RBs. Latavius Murray ($4,900) is facing a Lions’ defense that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs. Murray had 12 carries last week and is a solid low-priced option with touchdown upside. Other than Hyde and Murray, there aren’t many players in this range I’m targeting. I’m likely going to spend up on the running back position this week.
Players I’m Selling
High-Priced Tier ($6,800+): Austin Ekeler ($7,100) had 11 catches for 84 yards last week and is going to be a huge part of this team’s passing game with Justin Herbert under center. He hasn’t dropped a single pass this year and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. However, he’s going to find it difficult against a Tampa defense that allowed the least fantasy points to RBs last year and held Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey to modest games the first two weeks of the season. I’m also selling Nick Chubb ($7,000) in a matchup against a Dallas defense that has been surprisingly solid against the run, allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. The game script in this matchup is going to dictate that the Browns throw more than run, and that will benefit Kareem Hunt much more than it does Chubb. In a similar game script in Week 1 against the Ravens, Chubb only had 10 carries. Chubb is an elite talent at the position, but he only has three catches all year and is going to be hit-or-miss on a weekly basis due to game script.
Mid-Priced Tier ($5,500-$6,700): Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,400) is a player I’m not thrilled about this week as he takes on the Patriots’ defense that is allowing the 9th-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year. CEH has been hit-or-miss this season and I don’t expect him to excel in a matchup against the Patriots. Devin Singletary ($5,900) had a breakout 16.1-point effort last week and has a great matchup against the Raiders who are allowing the most fantasy points to RBs. However, Zack Moss should return this week and even with the rookie runner out last week and in a positive game script, Singletary only had 13 carries. I had high hopes for Joe Mixon ($5,800) this season, but the efficiency hasn’t been there to start the year – he’s rushed for under 3 yards per carry the past two games – and he only has 7 catches all year. I’m fading him in a matchup against a Jaguars’ defense that has been surprisingly solid against the run this season. Mark Ingram ($5,700) has less than 10 carries in each of his past two games and isn’t someone I’m looking to target right now, especially in a matchup against a stout Washington front seven. I’m also not looking to play Leonard Fournette ($5,600) as he only had 9 touches last week and the Bucs are going to continue to ride the hot hand in the backfield. He also faces the Chargers’ defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this year.
Low-Priced Tier ($4,000-$5,400): James White ($5,200) is going to return this week after missing a couple of games due to personal reasons, but I’m not thrilled about playing him against the Chiefs. In the one game White played in this season, he only had 8 carries and the Patriots are going to look to run the ball early and often against a susceptible KC run defense, meaning Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel should benefit. Joshua Kelley ($5,100) disappointed last week with only 11 touches and I’m not looking to play him against a tough Tampa run defense. Myles Gaskin ($5,000) was stellar in Week 3 with 27 total touches and he has double-digit fantasy points in every game this season. However, the Seahawks have allowed just the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this year and this doesn’t project as a great game script for Gaskins to be heavily featured. For similar reasons as Mark Ingram, I’m fading J.K. Dobbins ($4,900) after he only saw five touches last week and faces a tough Washington front seven this week.
Wide Receivers
Players I’m Buying
>High-Priced Tier ($6,300+): DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500) is a great target every week as he has seen 12.3 targets per game. Hopkins could also be due for some positive touchdown regression as he’s only scored once this season. The Panthers are an exploitable defense and with his elite target share and talent, Hopkins is worth spending up on. Tyler Lockett ($7,000) is surprisingly the second (or third, depending on how you feel about Michael Thomas’s likelihood to play) most expensive receiver on the slate. D.K. Metcalf comes in at $6,800. Both Seahawks receivers have scored 15+ fantasy points in every game this season. The Dolphins have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year, but they also haven’t played Russell Wilson yet and Lockett has been excellent to start this season. The Wilson – Lockett or Wilson – Metcalf stack is incredibly viable as always. Stefon Diggs ($6,800) is still a great target as he proved he’s a reliable enough fantasy receiver to depend upon even when the Bills aren’t in a pass-heavy game script. The Raiders have been good against opposing receivers this year, but they don’t have anyone who can run with Diggs. Cooper Kupp ($6,700) and Robert Woods ($6,300) are great targets against a Giants defense that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers, just be aware that either guy could be hurt by a run-heavy game script for the Rams. Amari Cooper ($6,700) is a great option as he has seen 9+ targets in every game and has 17+ fantasy points in every game as well. He plays a Browns’ defense with some secondary concerns that he can exploit.
Mid-Priced Tier ($5,300-$6,200): Michael Gallup ($6,200) had his best game of the season last week with 6 catches for 138 yards and a touchdown, and he faces a Cleveland defense this week that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year. That makes CeeDee Lamb ($5,400) a great target as well in a plus matchup. Tyler Boyd ($6,100) will have an exploitable matchup against Jaguars cornerback D.J. Hayden who will be covering him in the slot. Boyd had 10 catches for 125 yards last week and is Burrow’s favorite target at the moment. The Saints’ pass defense has been surprisingly beatable this year and with Kenny Golladay ($6,000) now fully back in the action, he should be a strong target as a mid-priced wideout who can provide WR1 value. Will Fuller ($5,900) is a hit-or-miss option, but the Texans face a Vikings defense this week that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800) is also a great option in what should be a pass-heavy game script for Cleveland as they attempt to keep pace with the Cowboys offense. Dallas has allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to WRs this year. DeVante Parker ($5,700) also draws a great matchup against the Seahawks who have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL so far. Terry McLaurin ($5,800) has been excellent this season and while he’s catching passes from a bad QB and playing against a tough Baltimore defense, I’m still fine playing him this week.
Low-Priced Tier ($3,000-$5,200): Justin Jefferson ($5,200) is coming off a massive game of 7 catches for 175 yards and a touchdown and plays the Texans defense which has been poor against the pass this year. While I’m fading Adam Thielen, Jefferson’s price is much more palatable. Be careful not to chase the points too much, though. Jarvis Landry ($5,100) hasn’t produced to start this season but the Cowboys have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year and this should be a pass-heavy game script for Cleveland. Darius Slayton ($5,000) is also an interesting option as I expect the Giants to be playing from behind and airing it out for much of the game. Emmanuel Sanders ($4,800) has been underwhelming to start the season, but he had his best game of the year last week with 4 catches for 56 yards and a touchdown. He faces a Lions defense that has given up the 9th-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and regardless of whether or not Michael Thomas is back this week, I expect him to have a strong game. Hunter Renfrow ($4,600) is coming off a game with 6 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown and is the Raiders’ healthiest skill player heading into this week with Henry Ruggs out and Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, and Bryan Edwards all banged up. The Bills secondary should be strong, but Renfrow excelled against an elite Patriots secondary. Preston Williams ($4,500) hasn’t really shown up this season but this could be the week he breaks out against a Seahawks defense that has allowed the most passing yards per game.
Players I’m Selling
High-Priced Tier ($6,300+): This is a week in DraftKings where I’m looking to spend up on running backs, not receivers, and there are plenty of guys to avoid in this tier. Michael Thomas ($7,600) has a great matchup, but he’s still questionable to play and I wouldn’t depend on him seeing a ton of snaps in his first game back from injury. Tyreek Hill ($6,900) faces one of the few secondaries that can reasonably defend him downfield and Bill Belichick is a master of taking away the opposing offense’s best option. Allen Robinson ($6,700) faces an Indy defense that has been surprisingly adept at defending receivers this year and I don’t trust either Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles under center right now. Adam Thielen ($6,600) only has 3 catches in each of his last two games and I don’t trust Kirk Cousins to consistently deliver him the ball accurately, even in a plus matchup against the Texans. Keenan Allen ($6,500) had an awesome game last week with 13 catches, but Justin Herbert is an inconsistent rookie and the Chargers are playing a Buccaneers team that is going to give him headaches this week. Chris Godwin ($6,500) is doubtful and even if he does play he faces the prospects of an elite Chargers’ secondary. Mike Evans ($6,400) is also facing that tough defense and I have no idea how to feel about his 16-game pace so far – 53 catches for 564 yards and 22 touchdowns. 22?! That seems wildly unsustainable and I’m fading Evans in a tough matchup, despite how great Brady looks right now. Finally, I’m fading Marquise Brown ($6,300) as the Lamar Jackson isn’t going to have time to throw the ball downfield with the Washington front seven bearing down on him. Brown hasn’t topped 6 targets this season and I’m not confident this is the matchup for that to happen.
Mid-Priced Tier ($5,300-$6,200): D.J. Chark ($6,000) should be able to return to the field this week, but the Bengals’ pass defense has been surprisingly great against the pass this year. William Jackson has been a lockdown corner this season and should draw a ton of Chark in coverage. Julian Edelman ($5,700) is coming off just a 2-catch game and is questionable to play this week. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest fantasy points to WRs this year so I’m fading Edelman. D.J. Moore ($5,600) only saw 4 targets last week and he faces a Cardinals defense this week that has allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers so far. A.J. Green ($5,500) hasn’t produced so far this year and may be losing his target share to rookie wideout Tee Higgins who had 2 touchdowns last week. Green plays a Jaguars defense that features C.J. Henderson, a rookie cornerback who has been great this season. I’m also fading T.Y. Hilton ($5,300) as he hasn’t produced to start this season and faces a Chicago cornerback group featuring two players who have been excellent in Kyle Fuller and Jaylon Johnson.
Low-Priced Tier ($3,000-$5,200): Tre’Quan Smith ($5,000) has seen his price spike after games with four and five catches, but I don’t see his upside as being high enough to consider playing him. The Lions have allowed a ton to receivers this season, but Desmond Trufant should play this week and Michael Thomas could return which would take away Smith’s targets. Curtis Samuel ($4,800) didn’t have the game I hoped for last week and the Cardinals have the defenders to match him in between the tackles. Samuel is a gadget player with intriguing upside in the right matchup, but the Cardinals have allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year.
Tight Ends
Players I’m Buying
High-Priced Tier ($5,100+): Travis Kelce ($6,800) is the highest-priced tight end this week, and while the Patriots have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, Kelce is a tight end unlike any other and is worth playing in DFS any week. Kelce has 6+ catches in every game this season. Mark Andrews ($6,000) is coming off a couple of rough games, but Washington has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends this year. With this pass rush bearing down on him, Lamar Jackson will be looking for short-area targets and Andrews should be heavily involved, especially in the red zone. Mike Gesecki ($5,100) is playing against the Seahawks who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends this year. However, Jamal Adams could miss this game and Gesecki plays a ton of snaps out of the slot. The Seahawks have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL so far and Gesecki is always going to be heavily involved in the Dolphins’ passing game.
Mid-Priced Tier ($4,000-$5,000): T.J. Hockenson ($4,800) should benefit from Kenny Golladay’s return opening up the offense and he faces a Saints defense this week that has allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends so far. Hockenson has 4+ catches in every game so far and has a strong chance to score a touchdown this week. Austin Hooper ($4,000) has disappointed to start this season, but the Cowboys have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to tight ends this year and the Browns should need to air it out to keep up with the Dallas offense. Dalton Schultz ($4,300) finished with 4 catches for 48 yards last week and has seen 16 targets over the past two weeks. He faces a Browns defense that has allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to tight ends this year.
Low-Priced Tier ($2,500-$3,900): Mo-Alie Cox ($3,900) still had 3 catches for 50 yards and a touchdown even after Jack Doyle returned to the lineup. The one place the Bears’ passing defense has been beatable is at tight end and Philip Rivers loves utilizing that position. You could do a lot worse than Alie-Cox this week. Tyler Eifert ($3,500) is also worth considering in a bit of a revenge game narrative against his former team in the Bengals. The Jaguars will look to air it out in this game and Eifert has seen 3+ targets in each of the past two games.
Players I’m Selling
High-Priced Tier ($5,100+): Tyler Higbee ($5,700) is coming off a game with just 2 catches for 40 yards and faces the Giants this week who have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year. Jared Cook ($5,400) is dealing with a groin injury and while the Lions have allowed a ton to opposing wide receivers, they’ve been better against tight ends. With the injury and Michael Thomas potentially returning, I’m out on Cook. Darren Waller ($5,200) is also dealing with an injury, a knee issue, and is facing the Bills defense that allowed Tyler Higbee to finish with just 2 catches last week.
Mid-Priced Tier ($4,000-$5,000): Hunter Henry ($4,600) had 5 catches for 50 yards last week but I’m worried about this entire offense’s ability to produce against a stout Tampa front seven. I don’t particularly trust Justin Herbert right now and I’d rather go with another option at tight end this week. Evan Engram ($4,400) has been awful to start this year, and as much as I’d love to recommend him in a positive game script against a beatable Rams defense, I just can’t get behind what the Giants offense is doing right now. I’m also fading Greg Olsen ($4,100) in a game where I don’t expect the Seahawks to need to pass very much to win.
Low-Priced Tier ($2,500-$3,900): Jimmy Graham ($3,400) had 6 catches for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns last week but he faces a Colts defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year. I haven’t particularly liked what I’ve seen from Graham or either of the Bears’ quarterbacks this season and I don’t want to play him in this matchup. Rob Gronkowski ($3,600) shouldn’t be considered in any format even after a solid game last week as his matchup is much tougher this week. Jack Doyle ($3,500) is in danger of losing his role to Mo Alie-Cox and his upside isn’t even that high to begin with.
Sample Lineups
In this section, I’m going to build a couple of sample lineups using the players I discussed above for you to reference when making your lineups this week. As always, I’m going to build a stack into all of these lineups with a quarterback and wide receiver/tight end. I believe stacks are the best way to maximize your potential to dominate in tournaments and win cash prizes on DraftKings. Here are a few ideas for how you can build your lineup this week.
Lineup #1:
QB: Russell Wilson $7,800
RB: James Robinson $6,500
RB: Kenyan Drake $6,000
WR: Tyler Lockett $7,000
WR: Tyler Boyd $6,200
WR: Justin Jefferson $5,200
TE: Mo Alie-Cox $3,900
FLEX: Josh Reynolds $4,100
DST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3,400
Lineup #2:
QB: Matthew Stafford $5,900
RB: Alvin Kamara $8,000
RB: Darrell Henderson Jr. $5,800
WR: Kenny Golladay $6,000
WR: Odell Beckham Jr. $5,800
WR: DeVante Parker $5,700
TE: T.J. Hockenson $4,800
FLEX: CeeDee Lamb $5,400
DST: Houston Texans $2,500
Lineup #3:
QB: Deshaun Watson $6,600
RB: Ezekiel Elliott $7,800
RB: Mike Davis $5,700
WR: Robert Woods $6,300
WR: Will Fuller $5,900
WR: Terry McLaurin $5,800
TE: Dalton Schultz $4,300
FLEX: Hunter Renfrow $4,600
DST: Jacksonville Jaguars $3,000