Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Expert Rankings and Projections Draft System 2019
Contents
It’s time for another NFL season which means another fantasy football season. Kickoff is less than two weeks away and the majority of fantasy football drafts will take place between tomorrow (August 24th) and the start of the NFL season (September 5th). There is no shortage of player rankings and projections available on the internet. This one, however, uses a series of formulas to best predict players statistical outcomes for the upcoming season. Not only that, but the players will be ranked based upon a specific scoring style. For league’s that have different scoring styles than these rankings use, I will explain how to easily adjust these ranking to best suit your league. Not every league is created the same, therefore not every player ranking should be used. Tailoring your ranking based on your league’s scoring style is important.
How These Projections Are Made
These projections are made by compiling players projected data from six different databases. Once the player’s data is averaged out, each individual player’s data is adjusted based on a 1-10 scale. Numbers 1-4 represent an expected decline from the average numbers, with 1 representing a steeper decline. The number 5 means the stats remain neutral and aren’t adjusted from the average. Numbers 6-10 represent an increase in expected production, with the number 10 representing the biggest increase.
For example, Atlanta Falcons WR Julio Jones was given a 6 rating this season. His original average projections came out to 99 catches, 1466 receiving yards, and 8.4 touchdowns. Given the slight increase with the 6 rating, you will see that he is now projected to catch 104 balls for 1524 receiving yards and 8.8 touchdowns. That may not seem like much of a difference, but in a standard PPR, that is an extra 13 fantasy points over the course of a season. That is just for a small rating like a 6. A 1 or 10 can increase or decrease a players average expected output by as many as 50 or more points. These adjustments have already been applied to the rankings.
2019 Fantasy Football Player Rankings and Projections
Quarterback Rankings
[table “270” not found /]Quarterback “Total Fantasy PTS” is calculated as “=(B2/25)+(C2*6)+(D2*-2)+(E2/10)+(F2*6)”.
– Passing Yards (B2): 25 yards per point
– Passing TD (C2): 6 points
– Interceptions (D2): -2 points
– Rushing Yards (E2): 10 yards per point
– Rushing TD (F2): 6 points
In order to adjust to your specific league scoring style, simply copy and paste the table into an Excel or Google Spreadsheet. Then copy and paste the formula above into a separate column. Adjust the formula to accommodate your league scoring. If your league requires 30 passing yards to accumulate one point, change “(B2/25)” to “(B2/30)”. Then drag down to populate the total points for each player. If interceptions are worth -3 points in your league then “(D2*-2)” changes to “(D2*-3)”.
Wide Receiver Rankings
GP | REC | YDS | TD |
---|---|---|---|
303 | 1,549 | 22,895 | 197 |
Wide Receiver “Total Fantasy PTS” is calculated as “=B2+(C2/10)+(D2*6)+(E2/10)+(F2*6)”.
– Receptions (B2): 1 point each
– Receiving Yards (C2): 10 yards per point
– Receiving TD (D2): 6 points
– Rushing Yards (E2): 10 yards per point
– Rushing TD (F2): 6 points
In order to adjust to your specific league scoring style, simply copy and paste the table into an Excel or Google Spreadsheet. Then copy and paste the formula above into a separate column. Adjust the formula to accommodate your league scoring. If your league requires 15 receiving yards to accumulate one point, change “(C2/10)” to “(C2/15)”. Then drag down to populate the total points for each player. If your league is not a PPR (points per reception) league, simply delete “B2” from the formula before dragging to populate.
Running Back Rankings
GP | REC | YDS | TD |
---|---|---|---|
218 | 982 | 15,292 | 156 |
Running Back “Total Fantasy PTS” is calculated as “=(B2/10)+(C2*6)+D2+(E2/10)+(F2*6)”.
– Rushing Yards (B2): 10 yards per point
– Rushing TD (C2): 6 points
– Receptions (D2): 1 point each
– Receiving Yards (E2): 10 yards per point
– Receiving TD (F2): 6 points
In order to adjust to your specific league scoring style, simply copy and paste the table into an Excel or Google Spreadsheet. Then copy and paste the formula above into a separate column. Adjust the formula to accommodate your league scoring. If your league requires 15 rushing yards to accumulate one point, change “(B2/10)” to “(B2/15)”. Then drag down to populate the total points for each player. If your league is not a PPR (points per reception) league, simply delete “D2” from the formula before dragging to populate.
Tight End Rankings
GP | REC | YDS | TD |
---|---|---|---|
116 | 488 | 7,991 | 99 |
Tight End “Total Fantasy PTS” is calculated as “=B2+(C2/10)+(D2*6)”.
– Receptions (B2): 1 point each
– Receiving Yards (C2): 10 yards per point
– Receiving TD (D2): 6 points
In order to adjust to your specific league scoring style, simply copy and paste the table into an Excel or Google Spreadsheet. Then copy and paste the formula above into a separate column. Adjust the formula to accommodate your league scoring. If your league requires 15 receiving yards to accumulate one point, change “(C2/10)” to “(C2/15)”. Then drag down to populate the total points for each player. If your league is not a PPR (points per reception) league, simply delete “B2” from the formula before dragging to populate.
Kicker Rankings
GP | REC | YDS | TD |
---|---|---|---|
200 | 819 | 13,089 | 100 |
Kicker “Total Fantasy PTS” is calculated as “=B2+(C2*3)+(D2*4)+(E2*5)”.
– Extra Points Made (B2): 1 point each
– FG Made 0-39 Yards (C2): 3 points each
– FG Made 40-49 Yards (D2): 4 points each
– FG Made 50+ Yards (E2): 5 points each
In order to adjust to your specific league scoring style, simply copy and paste the table into an Excel or Google Spreadsheet. Then copy and paste the formula above into a separate column. Adjust the formula to accommodate your league scoring. If your league counts all field goals made as three points, then change the formula to “=B2+(C2+D2+E2)*3”. Then drag down to populate the total points for each player.
While some leagues account for negative points for missed field goals or extra points, it is too difficult to assume how many field goals or extra points a kicker will miss in a given season. However, if you are interested in going that extra mile, check a kicker’s number of missed field goals over the last five years (or their entire career). Add them up and divide by the number of years (the same can be done for extra points). Then see how much a missed field goal or extra point subtracts from your kicker’s score. If it is -1 point per missed field goal the formula would then add (F2*-1) where “F2” represents the number of missed field goals. Therefore the entire formula would read “=B2+(C2*3)+(D2*4)+(E2*5)+(F2*-1)”.
Again, it is not recommended to add this in as there are a lot of variables for each individual kick that can’t be accounted for (weather, bad snap, blocked kick, field conditions, dome/stadium, etc.)
Defense/Special Team Rankings – With Return Yards
GP | REC | YDS | TD |
---|---|---|---|
190 | 1,102 | 14,580 | 128 |
Defense (with return yards) “Total Fantasy PTS” is calculated as “=B2+(C2*2)+(D2*2)+(E2*6)+(F2/15)”.
– Sack (B2): 1 point each
– Interception (C2): 2 points each
– Fumble Recovery (D2): 4 points each
– Touchdown (E2): 6 points each
– Return Yards (F2): 15 yards per point
In order to adjust to your specific league scoring style, simply copy and paste the table into an Excel or Google Spreadsheet. Then copy and paste the formula above into a separate column. Adjust the formula to accommodate your league scoring. Then drag down to populate the total points for each player. This scoring system accounts for return yards. The table below is for leagues that do not score for return yards.
Defense/Special Team Rankings – Without Return Yards
GP | REC | YDS | TD |
---|---|---|---|
186 | 633 | 11,834 | 88 |
Defense (without return yards) “Total Fantasy PTS” is calculated as “=B2+(C2*2)+(D2*2)+(E2*6)”.
– Sack (B2): 1 point each
– Interception (C2): 2 points each
– Fumble Recovery (D2): 4 points each
– Touchdown (E2): 6 points each