MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Monday, May 11, 2026
After a strong day on Saturday, we got shut out on Sunday, losing on Nick Kurtz, Wilyer Abreu, and Elly De La Cruz. We’ll try to bounce back with a smaller Monday slate.
Today, we’re going with Pete Alonso, Kazuma Okamoto, and Josh Jung. I like the matchups for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 23-107 (-1.3 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, May 11
Pete Alonso Home Run Odds
Pete Alonso has a .214/.313/.435 slash with eight home runs in 176 plate appearances in what’s been an underwhelming start to his tenure with the Orioles. The good news is that he’s walking at a high rate (11.9%), keeping the strikeout rate in check (24.4%), and hitting the ball hard (13.5% barrel rate).
The numbers also look a lot better in May so far, as highlighted by a .263/.333/.658 slash with four home runs in 42 plate appearances. Alonso has two home runs in his last five games, which bodes well for this prop.
Up next is a matchup against left-hander Ryan Weathers, who has been impressive for the Yankees with a 28.5% strikeout rate, but he’s giving up a lot of hard contact, including an 11.7% barrel rate.
Weathers hasn’t pitched since May 3rd because they skipped his turn as he was dealing with an illness. That kind of disruption in routine can have a negative impact on a pitcher.
When you consider each of these factors, you have to like the price on Alonso (longer than +400 odds at the time of this article). Risk 0.1 units.
Kazuma Okamoto Home Run Odds
Kazuma Okamoto is slashing .248/.331/.483 with 10 home runs in 163 plate appearances. This includes excellent batted ball metrics, with a 16.2% barrel rate.
Okamoto has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball lately, slashing .343/.425/.829 with five home runs in 40 plate appearances in May. He has five home runs in his last nine games.
While the matchup is tough on paper vs. Drew Rasmussen, the Rays’ righty just faced Okamoto in his last outing, allowing one home run in three plate appearances against him.
Rasmussen actually has had issues with the long ball this season, giving up a 1.47 HR/9 and a 10.6% barrel rate.
Given how well Okamoto is swinging the bat, we’ll ride with him here. Risk 0.1 units.
Josh Jung Home Run Odds
Josh Jung has been excellent for the Rangers, slashing .331/.382/.525 with five home runs in 152 plate appearances. He’s trimmed his strikeout rate from 25.2% to 15.1%, while hitting the ball hard, featuring a 47.9% hard-hit rate.
The Rangers’ third baseman has been even better in May, including a .368/.385/.474 slash with one homer in 39 plate appearances.
I like the matchup vs. Diamondbacks’ right-hander Michael Soroka, who has a 5.03 xERA and a 12.1% barrel rate on the season. Soroka has allowed one home run in four of his last five outings.
With how well Jung is swinging the bat, coupled with Soroka’s struggles, the price looks quite appealing here at longer than +600 odds at the time of this column.
We’ll ride with Jung to go yard for the sixth time of the year here. Risk 0.1 units.
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Photo Credit: AP/Chris O’Meara
