MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Monday, May 25, 2026
We made some profit on Sunday, as Jake Burger hit a home run, helping offset losses from Corbin Carroll and Gavin Sheets. We’ll try to build on this result for the Memorial Day slate.
Today, we’re going with Munetaka Murakami, Jose Ramirez, and Kyle Schwarber. I’m going with chalk today to switch it up. Each of these hitters is in good spots, so we’ll take a shot here.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 30-138 (-1.64 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, May 25
Munetaka Murakami Home Run Odds
Munetaka Murakami is currently slashing .235/.376/.530 with 17 home runs in 226 plate appearances. This includes an elite walk rate (18.1%) and impressive barrel rate (20.2%).
Murakami hasn’t homered since May 16th, but I like the matchup for him tonight.
He’ll be going up against Twins’ right-hander Zebby Matthews, who has been impressive since being recalled to the big leagues. However, this is a starter who has had issues with the long ball. In 34.1 innings at Triple-A this year, Matthews put up a 2.36 HR/9. Last season in the big leagues, Matthews had a 1.36 HR/9.
It’s also worth noting that last year, lefties put up a .386 wOBA vs. Matthews (.291 wOBA for righties), which is good news for Murakami, who bats from the left side. So far this year, Murakami has a 159 wRC+ vs. righties (133 wRC+ vs. lefties).
With that in mind, we’ll go with Murakami in this matchup. Risk 0.1 units.
Jose Ramirez Home Run Odds
Jose Ramirez is slashing .227/.347/.399 with eight home runs in 242 plate appearances. This includes an underwhelming 8.2% barrel rate.
While Ramirez hasn’t homered since May 18th, this is the right matchup to take a shot on him. He’s going up against Nationals’ right-hander Zack Littell, who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season.
Littell has allowed a 7.46 xERA with a 2.91 HR/9 and a 13.6% barrel rate. In other words, he has an issue with hard contact and home runs.
What’s even better for Ramirez here is that Littell has given up a .446 wOBA vs. lefties (.304 wOBA against righties). As a switch-hitter, Ramirez will hit from the left side tonight.
Considering these factors, we’ll ride with Ramirez here. Risk 0.1 units.
Kyle Schwarber Home Run Odds
Kyle Schwarber is having yet another terrific season, currently slashing .228/.347/.600 with 20 home runs in 225 plate appearances. This includes an otherworldly 25.0% barrel rate.
The veteran slugger has been absolutely dominant in May, homering nine times in only 19 games. I like the matchup vs. Padres’ right-hander Randy Vasquez.
Vasquez has a 2.96 ERA, but the underlying metrics point to regression, as highlighted by a 5.43 xERA. Lefties like Schwarber have put up a .330 wOBA vs. Vasquez, while righties are at .285 wOBA.
Since this game is in a pitcher-friendly environment in San Diego, we’re getting a bit of a better price on Schwarber, so we’ll ride with him to hit his 21st homer of the year in this matchup. Risk 0.1 units.
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