MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Saturday, May 16, 2026
We were shut out on Friday, as Yordan Alvarez and Bobby Witt Jr. each failed to homer, while Byron Buxton had the day off.
We’ll look to get back on track for the Saturday slate, where we’re riding with Jordan Walker, Curtis Mead, and Munetaka Murakami.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 26-117 (-1.31 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, May 16
Jordan Walker Home Run Odds
Jordan Walker is having a terrific season, establishing himself as one of the biggest breakouts of 2026. The Cardinals’ outfielder is currently slashing .294/.370/.575 with 12 home runs in 181 plate appearances coming into Friday’s action. He’s homered in back-to-back games, so he’s in a groove at the plate right now.
This is a hitter who is absolutely crushing the ball this year, as highlighted by an impressive 18.0% barrel rate. Walker has been even better against left-handed pitchers, putting up a .378 ISO, which is good news because he’ll get one up next in Noah Cameron.
The Royals’ lefty has struggled this season, registering a 6.40 xERA and allowing a 13.6% barrel rate. We’re also getting favorable weather in St. Louis, with forecasts calling for 78-degree temperatures with 10.7 MPH winds blowing out to left-center.
Considering these factors, it’s a good spot to ride with Walker to hit a home run. Risk 0.1 units.
Curtis Mead Home Run Odds (+700)
Here we have a longshot home run prop for you with Curtis Mead. The former Rays prospect is currently slashing .227/.346/.443 with four home runs in 104 plate appearances. He’s quietly showed some improvements at the plate, bumping up his walk rate from 5.7% to 13.5% while cutting his strikeout rate from 23.9% to 16.3%.
On top of that, Mead is hitting the ball much harder, improving his barrel rate from 4.5% to 9.9%. While he hasn’t homered since April 29th, I like the spot for him against the Orioles here.
Chris Bassitt is on the mound for Baltimore. The veteran righty has registered a 5.03 xERA this season. We’re also getting favorable weather here, with forecasts projecting 84-degree temperatures with 9.3 MPH winds blowing out to center.
It’s also worth noting that Mead is 2-for-3 with one home run against Bassitt in his career, which is a nice “cherry on top” for this play. Risk 0.1 units.
Munetaka Murakami Home Run Odds
Munetaka Murakami has exceeded expectations in coming to MLB, slashing .227/.371/.533 with 15 home runs in 186 plate appearances. While the strikeout rate remains an issue (33.9%), the barrel rate is off the charts at 22.7%. The White Sox first baseman simply crushes the ball.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Cubs’ right-hander Jameson Taillon. The veteran has 4.22 xERA and a 2.17 HR/9 this season. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact, as highlighted by a 13.3% barrel rate.
Lefties have been going yard quite often against Taillon, as he’s giving up a 2.53 HR/9. With that in mind, it’s a good spot to take a shot on Murakami to hit his 16th homer of the year. He’s facing a home run-prone hitter who is worse against lefties. Risk 0.1 units.
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