MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, May 14, 2026
We got shut out on Wednesday, as Ben Rice and JJ Bleday each failed to hit home runs. To make matters worse, Ceddanne Rafaela homered for us, but it was as a pinch hitter, so it doesn’t count.
Today, we’re going with Fernando Tatis Jr., Jordan Walker, and Heliot Ramos. Each of these hitters is in a good spot to go yard.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 25-113 (-1.27 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, May 14
Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run Odds
Fernando Tatis Jr. has gotten off to a surprisingly poor start so far, coming into Wednesday’s action with a .245/.324/.293 slash with zero home runs in 173 plate appearances. Despite having an elite 58.6% hard-hit rate, Tatis has failed to hit a homer.
That’s because he had a career-high 51.8% groundball rate and a career-low 29.7% pull rate. Maybe he’s no longer a 30-homer threat, but this complete lack of power is just a complete aberration. It’s only a matter of time before he hits one.
Now that we’re getting longer than +500 odds on Tatis to homer, we’ll take a shot on him. He’s going up against Brewers’ left-hander Kyle Harrison. Tatis has a .174 ISO vs. lefties (.024 ISO vs. righties).
With that in mind, we’ll bet on Tatis to hit his first homer of the season in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Jordan Walker Home Run Odds
Jordan Walker has been one of the biggest breakouts of the season, coming into Wednesday’s action with a .298/.378/.570 slash with 11 home runs in 172 plate appearances. The batted ball metrics are impressive, as highlighted by an 18.3% barrel rate.
Not only is this game at a home run haven in Sutter Health Park, but Walker is also going up against left-hander Jacob Lopez, who is giving up a 2.04 HR/9 this year. It also bodes well that Walker has been good vs. lefties, putting up a .333 ISO against them.
This is projected to be a high-scoring game, as reflected in the 9.5-run total. With Walker crushing the ball all year, it’s a good idea to take a shot on him here, even at shorter than +400 odds. Risk 0.1 units.
Heliot Ramos Home Run Odds
Last but not least, I’m going with Heliot Ramos. Yes, Ramos has an underwhelming slash line of .277/.315/.445 with four home runs in 165 plate appearances. However, he’s hitting the ball hard, including a 12.7% barrel rate.
It’s also worth noting that Ramos is swinging a hot bat of late, going 9-for-23 (.391 BA) with one home run in his last five games. That’s good news vs. Dodgers’ righty Emmet Sheehan, who has a 4.15 xERA and a 1.51 HR/9 on the season.
With how hot Ramos has been, combined with Sheehan’s struggles with the long ball, we’ll ride with the Giants’ outfielder to hit his fifth homer of the year. You also have to like the price, which was at nearly +500 odds at the time of this article. Risk 0.1 units.
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Photo Credit: AP/Godofredo A. Vásquez
