MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, May 28, 2026
We went 2-1 on Wednesday, as Julio Rodriguez and Brandon Lowe each hit home runs, while Aaron Judge was kept at bay. That’s now three winning nights in the last four, so we’re on a mini hot streak.
Today, we’re going with Pete Alonso, George Springer, and Bryan Reynolds. Each of these hitters is in a good spot to go yard.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 34-142 (-0.75 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, May 28
Pete Alonso Home Run Odds
Pete Alonso is currently slashing .231/.315/.429 with 10 home runs in 241 plate appearances. It’s been a slow start to his tenure with the Orioles, but he’s still barreling the ball at a decent rate (12.6%).
Alonso has also been much better in May, slashing .271/.327/.510 with six home runs in 107 plate appearances. He has two home runs in his last seven games. This is a slugger with a long track record, so it’s only a matter of time before we see a power binge.
Up next is a matchup against left-hander Patrick Corbin, who has a 5.37 xERA on the season. This is a good matchup for Alonso, as he’s quite familiar with Corbin from when they both played in the NL East. In 63 career plate appearances vs. Corbin, Alonso has five home runs with a .704 expected slugging percentage.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Alonso to hit No. 11 today. Risk 0.1 units.
George Springer Home Run Odds
George Springer is slashing .211/.291/.366 with five home runs in 160 plate appearances this season. The barrel rate is way down, decreasing from 15.8% to 8.0%.
However, Springer is starting to heat up at the plate, homering three times in his last 10 games. Up next is a good matchup against former Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt.
Bassitt has a 4.84 xERA on the season, allowing four runs in two of his last four starts.
Springer has had success against Bassitt in his career, going 8-for-20 with two home runs and a .663 expected slugging percentage.
With this game at a hitter’s park like Camden Yards, it’s a good spot to ride with Springer to hit No. 6. Risk 0.1 units.
Bryan Reynolds Home Run Odds
Bryan Reynolds is slashing .266/.385/.402 with four home runs in 239 plate appearances. He’s done a good job increasing his walk rate from 8.7% to 15.1%, demonstrating patience at the plate.
The veteran outfielder is starting to heat up, currently on a five-game hitting streak, with three multi-hit games during this stretch.
Up next is a matchup against Cubs right-hander Colin Rea, who has a 5.16 xERA and a 1.33 HR/9 on the season. Reynolds has had success against Rea throughout his career, going 8-for-19 with two home runs and a .633 expected slugging percentage.
We’ve also got favorable weather on tap, with 13 MPH winds blowing out at PNC Park.
With Reynolds on a hot streak, I’ll take a shot on him to go yard for the fifth time of the season against a pitcher he’s familiar with. Risk 0.1 units.
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