MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Tuesday, May 12, 2026
We were shut out for the second night in a row on Monday, as Pete Alonso, Kazuma Okamoto, and Josh Jung each failed to hit a home run. We’ll try to snap the losing streak for the Tuesday slate.
Today, we’re going with James Wood, Bobby Witt Jr., and Jackson Chourio. Each of these hitters is in a good spot. They’re also red-hot at the plate, making them worth a shot on today’s slate.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 23-110 (-1.6 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, May 12
James Wood Home Run Odds
James Wood is slashing .244/.392/.526 with 11 home runs in 194 plate appearances. The Nationals’ outfielder has been crushing the ball, as highlighted by an absurd 27.1% barrel rate.
I love the matchup against Brady Singer, who is allowing a 5.74 xERA and a 9.4% barrel rate. His numbers are a lot worse vs. lefties like Wood, including a .431 wOBA and 1.8 HR/9.
On top of that, hitting at Great American Ball Park is an added bonus, as this is a home run haven, which is perfect for power hitters like Wood.
This is a projected high-scoring game, which is reflected in the 10.5-run total. Add that up together and you can see why Wood looks like an appealing play. Risk 0.1 units.
Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run Odds
Bobby Witt Jr. is slashing .302/.372/.475 with five home runs in 183 plate appearances. While the sub-.500 slugging percentage is underwhelming, Witt has been getting hot at the plate.
So far in May, Witt is slashing .341/.386/.610 with three home runs in 10 games. This is a hitter with 30+ home run upside who is in top form right now.
Up next is an exploitable matchup vs. Erick Fedde, who is giving up a 4.04 xERA and a 9.5% barrel rate, so hitters are squaring the ball up against him.
We’re also getting favorable weather, with 14.2 MPH winds blowing out to left field, which is great news for right-handers like Witt.
Given that May has been good to Witt so far, we’ll go with him here. Risk 0.1 units.
Jackson Chourio Home Run Odds
Jackson Chourio just recently returned from a lengthy absence due to injury, and the results are good so far, including a .364/.417/.500 slash in 24 plate appearances.
Chourio has been crushing the ball, putting up a 23.5% barrel rate. While he’s yet to hit a home run, this feels like a good spot for his first of the season.
It’s an exploitable matchup vs. Matt Waldron, who has been poor for the Padres so far, allowing a 1.93 HR/9.
We all know how Chourio has 30+ home run upside, as he’s one of the best young hitters in baseball. It’s only a matter of time before he goes on a power binge.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on him hitting his first homer of the year here. Risk 0.1 units.
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